Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

15.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE

ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 14.5

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

tonies fires on all cylinders; PT Up

tonies released final FY25 figures and its FY26 guidance, underpinning the

company's position as the category leader of screen-free entertainment for

kids with the largest customer base worldwide.

FY25 group revenues surged 31% (+36% cc) to EUR 630m, with every single market

posting double-digit growth, carried by the launch of the Toniebox 2 (TB2),

the introduction of new product categories (My First Tonies, Tonieplay) and

a strong international push (North America +40% cc, RoW +68% cc). More

importantly, these impressive growth rates don't come at the expense of

profitability: the adj. EBITDA margin expanded 1.1pp to 8.6%, driven by a

margin-accretive mix shift toward Tonies figures (+37% yoy, now 71% of

revenue) and lower fulfilment (wholesale expansion), licensing (higher

tonies originals share) and lower COGS (improved sourcing).

The TB2 launch is a structural catalyst. With an ever expanding installed

base (11.8m total boxes sold so far) tonies creating a growing and

increasingly recurring revenue opportunity through Tonies figure sales. This

is especially true for the TB2 as it targets a much broader age range.

The international expansion story remains one of the most compelling aspects

of the investment case. North America continues to broaden beyond

distribution wins at Target and Walmart, with DTC momentum and launches like

the Ms. Rachel Tonie demonstrating genuine brand depth. Tariff headwinds

were absorbed through supply chain agility and selective price increases. In

France, tonies became the fastest-growing preschool brand in the country,

while the UK installed base crossed 1 million boxes underscoring the

repeatability of tonies' market entry playbook.

The FY26 guidance. Management expects >20% cc revenue growth to >EUR 760m

(eNuW: EUR +26%), >30% cc in North America (eNuW: 32%), and an adj. EBITDA

margin of 9-11% (eNuW: 10%). On the margin side, this implies up to 2.4pp of

further expansion from a base where cost discipline is already embedded

driven by operating leverage, ecosystem monetization (Tonieplay,

accessories), and the compounding attach rate economics of a growing

installed base.

The FCF dip to EUR -12m (from EUR 33m in FY24) was strategic due to significant

inventory build-ups to maximize the TB2 (most significant innovation since

2016), Tonieplay, My First Tonies and Cuddle Tonies launch windows. Over the

course of FY26e, this should somewhat normalize (eNuW: EUR 30m in FY26e).

Importantly, the company's balance sheet comfortably supports this thanks to

EUR 56m of net cash and EUR 138m of available cash (incl. unused credit lines).

tonies remains a textbook example for a success story. Since 2019, group

revenues grew at a 36% CAGR while reaching solid margins and improving cash

generation. Yet, the growth story is far from over. While Toniebox

activations already span more than 100 countries, tonies has so far pursued

dedicated launches in only a handful of markets. Yet the results wherever it

has done so have been impressive. This suggests meaningful untapped

potential from further country rollouts in the mid-term, with additional

detail expected at the Capital Markets Day on June 18th in London.

We hence confirm our BUY rating with a raised EUR 14.5 (old: EUR 14) PT based on

DCF as we raise our long-term EBIT margin to 11%.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=c65b0a0df62410043b6e75ec5b4b829c

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2308502 15.04.2026 CET/CEST

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