Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

21.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE

ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 18.5

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

US drives H1 eCons beat // strong H2 set-up

tonies delivered a strong Q2, with group revenue of EUR 117m, +49% yoy (cc)

ahead of consensus (EUR 108m). TB2 momentum remained exceptional, and figurine

demand is accelerating, a reassuring signal for the recurring-revenue

engine. The group margin dip (H1 adj. EBITDA margin -1.4pp yoy) was largely

due to US tariffs and a product-mix shift toward lower-margin boxes

(negative implications partially offset by scale-related efficiency gains in

marketing and SG&A).

FCF came in at EUR -64.3m in H1 (H1 25: EUR -31.8m), driven by a seasonal

inventory build ahead of an unusually front-loaded H2 launch calendar

(Bluey, Pokémon, Toniebox Lite). With tonies' sales heavily skewed to Q4,

this working capital typically unwinds in H2 as inventory converts to sales,

and management continues to guide to positive FY FCF (eNuW: EUR 29.7m).

North America: the engine keeps accelerating. The US remains the growth

driver, up 85% yoy cc in Q2 to EUR 57m (H1: EUR 104m, +57% cc). The business

case rests on increasing the household penetration (still only around 12%)

to harvest high margin figurine revenue later. As part of the Toniebox Lite

launch, the company unlocked 800 additional Walmart POS with out-of-aisle

placements.

DACH growth in a near-saturated market underpins the TAM story. DACH sales

added 23% yoy in Q2 (H1: EUR 89m, +26% cc), once again proving that even at

~60% household penetration the market is far from tapped. TB2's broadening

of the addressable age group to 1-9 years, via My First Tonies and Tonieplay

keep adding onto the existing base, while margins expanded strongly (EBITDA

margin +7.9pp to 24.4% in H1) marking the region as the group's

profitability blueprint.

Rest of World is still in early innings. ROW grew 31% yoy in Q2 (H1: EUR 50m,

+43% cc), led by the UK, France and Australia. Growth here is tracking the

early DACH curve, and with two further market launches slated for FY27 and

coverage of all major regions targeted by FY30, we continue to see ROW

converting into a meaningful contributor over time.

TB2 flywheel spinning, figurines accelerating. Toniebox revenue jumped 76%

yoy cc in Q2 (12.6m installed base), a further step-up as TB2's wider age

range and Tonieplay keep resonating. More important for the long-term case,

figurine sales growth accelerated to 43% yoy cc, the key recurring-revenue

metric, confirming that attach behaviour is strengthening as the base grows

rather than fading with the hardware cycle. H2 flagship content launches

incl. Bluey and Pokémon should enable a strong Q4.

Guidance confirmed and, in our view, cautious. Management reiterated >20% cc

group growth (to >EUR 760m; eCons EUR 780m), >30% cc in North America, and a

9-11% adj. EBITDA margin (eCons 10.4%). Given the setup, we see the guidance

as more of a floor than a stretch.

Our take: the print confirms the thesis. Growth is compounding rather than

maturing, the margin softness is a timing effect that builds tomorrow's

high-margin revenue, and each new device and licence widens the moat. With a

still-low US and ROW penetration, tonies is on track to become a global icon

with strong, capex-light cash generation.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 18.50 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=dcc7501a2828bd455f8b424b4d579ba0

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2386640 21.08.2026 CET/CEST

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