Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

19.06.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE

ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 18.5

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

CMD unboxes a global success story; PT UP

tonies held its first-ever Capital Markets Day, announcing an upbeat

mid-term margin and growth guidance, an exclusive content deal as well as a

new Toniebox. Here are the key takeaways:

* Sales to double by FY30e. Management guided for group sales of more than

EUR 1.4bn by FY30e (vs FY25 sales of EUR 630m), largely in line with our

estimates. Growth is to be driven by new market entries, new product

launches and a rising household penetration in the US. Worth

highlighting, the current installed base of Tonieboxes already provides

visibility into EUR 1-1.5bn content-driven sales during the next few

years. One Toniebox sale yields c. 20 figurine sales over 4.5 years in a

subscription-like manner.

* US still early despite near-complete distribution. US household

penetration stands at just 12%, against 58% in DACH, even though tonies

already sits across all relevant retail partners such Amazon, Walmart

and Target, which represent ~85% of the US pre-school market. Mind you,

within five years, tonies become #2 pre-school toy in the US.

* Additional market launches pending. At least two new market launches are

targeted by year-end FY27, with coverage of all major global regions by

FY30. With a toolkit of successful blueprints (e.g. Australia) as well

an already large global installed base (activated boxes in 100+

countries), we regard the chances of success as high.

* New Toniebox. tonies announced to be launching a "Toniebox lite" in the

second half of the year. With additional details expected in August, the

smaller and lighter alternative to TB2 is aimed at expanding the TAM via

a lower entry point, secondary-location/travel use cases, and

multi-device ownership within existing households.

* Margin to exceed expectations. By FY30e, tonies guides for 16-18% adj.

EBITDA margin vs 8.6% in FY25 (eNuW old: ~13%). This reflects the

natural evolution toward higher-margin attach revenue as the installed

base increases alongside improved operating leverage stemming from

structural improvements across cost of goods, fulfillment, and the

broader cost base incl. SG&A.

* Content moat widens further. Tonies announced a collaboration with BBC,

bringing Bluey to the Toniebox. For the past two consecutive years,

Bluey has been the most streamed show in the US (not just within the

pre-school category). Alongside the already-secured Pokémon exclusive

and the in-house Tonies Studio content engine (e.g. the new 'Sleepy

Friends' partnership with Carlsen), the group is expanding its content,

now covering nearly all relevant IPs.

Our take: The CMD confirms our tonies thesis. A category-defining ecosystem

with subscription-like repurchase behaviour, still-low US penetration

despite near-complete distribution, and a content engine licensors now

chase. By FY30e, the company will have transformed into a global icon with

particularly strong cash generation thanks to its capex-light set-up.

BUY with an increased EUR 18.5 PT (old: EUR 14.5) based on DCF as we raise our

mid- to long-term margin estimates by an average of 4pp. Terminal EBIT

margin is raised from 11% to 15%.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=ca1a0ec42f101458207860fd9f21689a

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2349504 19.06.2026 CET/CEST

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