Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

08.06.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE

ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 80

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Jackpots lining up while valuation remains attractive

A more supportive jackpot environment should drive a visible acceleration in

ZEAL's Q2 billings. Following a soft Q1 jackpot backdrop, Q2 has already

seen eight peak jackpots across Eurojackpot and Lotto 6aus49. While Lotto

typically generates less "jackpot fever" than Eurojackpot, the impact on

market activity is still material: last Wednesday's Lotto draw generated c.

EUR 35m in accumulated stakes, c. 43% above the average Wednesday Lotto draw.

Based on jackpot and stakes data to date, the German lottery market (Lotto

and Eurojackpot combined) is tracking towards c. 8% yoy stakes growth in Q2,

even without assuming any further peak jackpots before quarter-end. ZEAL

should benefit disproportionately from this, driven by ongoing online

penetration, market share gains and its stronger customer activation in

high-jackpot phases. On this basis, we currently estimate Q2 billings of c.

EUR 316m, implying 20.3% yoy growth and a clear sequential re-acceleration

after the muted Q1 (+5.8% yoy, still reflecting a 10pp market

outperformance; incl. proprietary formats).

Peak jackpots remain a key swing factor for player stakes and therefore an

important short-term indicator for ZEAL's financials. Encouragingly, the

base effect should remain supportive into H2 2026. H2 2025 saw only two peak

jackpots across Lotto and Eurojackpot, clearly below the historical average

of 4.5 per half-year. Even a normalisation towards average jackpot frequency

would therefore imply a more favourable market setup, supporting the case

for continued billings momentum beyond Q2.

At the same time, ZEAL's DreamCarRaffle should add further evidence that

ZEAL can build economically attractive proprietary lottery formats beyond

the traditional brokerage model. Season Zero has already reached c. 61%

ticket sell-through ahead of the June 24 closing date, implying collected

ticket proceeds of c. EUR 1.5m. Assuming similar proportions as for ZEAL's

DreamHouseRaffle, c. 37% of the total is earmarked for charities and taxes,

c. 20% for the prize and c. 43% for ZEAL via cost recovery and service fees.

This implies that c. EUR 0.95m of collected ticket proceeds is available to

cover the prize cost of c. EUR 350k and ZEAL's costs, including personnel and

marketing. On this basis, reaching break-even for the initial season appears

realistic, even after allowing for c. EUR 0.6m of operating costs. While the

absolute contribution is still small, higher sell-through should directly

benefit profits, while repeat players and lower customer acquisition

intensity should support future margins. Notably, future seasons are set to

include several cars across different themes, and hence DreamCarRaffle

should broaden its appeal beyond pure sports-car enthusiasts and give ZEAL a

repeatable format to monetise its existing reach and customer base.

In sum, Q2 should mark a clear billings re-acceleration. The structural

online shift, ZEAL's diversification into proprietary formats within its

core lottery expertise and an undemanding valuation further support the case

(2026e EV/EBITDA c. 40% below 5-year average).

BUY, PT EUR 80, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=262c2623380b036b722033a9c06decbf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2340994 08.06.2026 CET/CEST

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