Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

05.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE

ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 85

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Our tip: above the guidance top end; chg.

We raise our estimates and expect ZEAL to beat its 2026 EBITDA guidance.

ZEAL generated c. EUR 25m of EBITDA before deal costs in Q3 without a peak

Eurojackpot. October's stronger jackpot backdrop gives ZEAL scope to repeat

that performance in Q4. Conservatively, we still model just c. EUR 20m.

Social lotteries helped ZEAL grow in a weaker market. ZEAL grew organic

sales by c. 9% yoy in Q3 despite a 3% decline in combined German Lotto and

Eurojackpot stakes. Eurojackpot had zero draws at the cap versus two in Q3

25. Lotteries segment sales grew 8% yoy, helped by higher ticket sales and

related fees from freiheit+ and by the new Dream Car Raffle. A richer

product mix lifted the lottery gross margin by 0.6pp to 18.5%. Games sales

rose 20% yoy, driven mainly by a 14% increase in monthly active users.

Notably, ARPU also rose c. 13% qoq to EUR 40.93, likely helped by ZEAL's

phased rollout of higher spin limits from July. Including EUR 10.5m from

SevenCanyon's first quarter of consolidation, group sales rose 26% yoy to EUR

77m.

The underlying EBITDA margin reached 32.1%. Excluding c. EUR 4.9m of deal

costs, Q3 EBITDA rose 32% yoy to c. EUR 25m. Personnel costs increased just

11% yoy against 26% sales growth, the clearest source of positive operating

leverage. Direct costs also fell as a share of sales, to 8.3% from 8.8%.

Even after deal costs, reported EBITDA rose 6% yoy to EUR 19.9m (8% ahead of

eNuW).

ZEAL needs EUR 16.3m in Q4 to reach the top end of the FY EBITDA guidance. We

see EUR 20.2m. That implies c. 37% EBITDA growth yoy in Q4 and FY26 EBITDA of

EUR 79.0m, EUR 4.0m above the guidance ceiling. Our Q4 estimate sits c. EUR 4.5m

below Q3 underlying EBITDA. Three October Eurojackpot draws at the EUR 120m

cap, versus none in Q4 25, should support customer reactivation.

The discount is getting harder to justify. ZEAL trades at just 8.3x FY27e

EV/EBITDA against a five-year average of c. 22x. Yet EBITDA growth looks set

to nearly double to c. 28% yoy in FY27, taking EBITDA to c. EUR 101m with the

margin back above 30%. Secular growth and a track record of turning EBITDA

into cash (five-year historical FCF/EBITDA of c. 92%) still support a

multiple around ZEAL's historical average, in our view. The PT implies 18x

2027e EV/EBITDA (eNuW).

Management seems to see value here too. The CEO and CFO bought c. EUR 87k of

shares in late September at average prices of EUR 42.14 and EUR 42.80,

respectively. This compares to a share price of c. EUR 40 today.

ZEAL's growth is becoming less dependent on the jackpot calendar. Its own

lotteries and Games give players reasons to return between big draws, and

SevenCanyon gives ZEAL a platform for international expansion.

Action: the strong Q3 operating performance points to the group's potential

and supports a 5.6% average increase in FY26-28e EBITDA estimates.

BUY, PT raised to EUR 85 (old: EUR 83), based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=3b960cf0498e1eaccf737f7d6a298f73

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2428834 05.11.2026 CET/CEST

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