Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

06.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE

ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 83

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Strong Q2, driven by multiple growth levers

ZEAL delivered a strong Q2, ahead of our estimates on both sales and EBITDA,

with EBITDA up 33% yoy despite ongoing investments into the proprietary

lottery formats.

ZEAL grew more than twice as fast as its underlying market. Q2 lottery

billings rose 25% yoy to EUR 328m, against only 11% yoy growth in the

Eurojackpot and Lotto market, which itself enjoyed an unusually strong

jackpot environment (13 peak jackpots vs. 2 in Q2 25, Lotto at its EUR 50m cap

for more than ten consecutive draws). Beyond the structural shift of an

increasing online penetration, this outperformance is courtesy of deep

customer understanding, high marketing expertise and new growth legs such as

proprietary raffles.

Q2 group sales rose 34% yoy to EUR 67.5m, driven by a larger user base (MAU

+14% yoy), higher activity per user (ABPU +10% yoy) and a further gross

margin improvement (18.5%, +1.1pp yoy).

The proprietary raffles are scaling quickly. In fact, raffle sales were up

52% yoy to EUR 10.3m in H1, mostly driven by the Dreamhouse Raffle. Here,

billings per day are increasing noticeably, driven by improving scale and

shortening draw cycles. House #8 was completed in only 63 days (vs. c. 84d

for the last two houses) at EUR 9.3m of billings, i.e. c. EUR 148k per day,

making it the best yielding house to date and well above the c. EUR 104k

average of all previous houses. The cadence is increasing: three houses were

drawn in H1 26 vs. four in all of 2025.

Q2 EBITDA grew 33% yoy to EUR 23.4m. The improvement came despite marketing

expenses increasing 63% yoy, spent into the favourable jackpot window and

into the diversification push, which brought a record 384k new customers

(+52% yoy). With a payback period of two to three years on acquired

customers, that spending should be seen as a transfer of earnings into 2027e

and beyond. In light of this, a roughly flat margin of 34.7% should be seen

as the result of both operating leverage and growth investments.

The confirmed EUR 70-75m EBITDA guidance now looks de-risked. With EUR 38.9m

booked in H1, the guidance mid-point implies H2 EBITDA of c. EUR 33.6m, i.e.

+0.4% yoy at a margin of 25.2%. As the SevenCanyon contribution and the

related one-off acquisition costs broadly offset each other in H2 (eNuW),

this is effectively an organic number, meaning guidance assumes no organic

growth at all, after +10% in H1 and +33% in Q2.

At the same time, new slot rules allow ZEAL to raise stake limits in the

gaming business (c. 6% of total sales). Player protection standards should

explain only a gradual step-up. Growth in Games should hence continue to

come primarily from new customers rather than higher stakes.

In sum, ZEAL remains historically cheap, despite several well-performing new

growth levers. The current 2026e EV/EBITDA multiple sits c. 39% below the

5-year historical avg. (eNuW), even though growth accelerated in Q2, the TAM

is expanding thanks to internationalisation via the UK acquisition, and the

EBITDA guidance looks de-risked (eNuW). Next to the high-growth outlook, the

company also remains an income-producing asset, currently offering a c. 3.4%

dividend yield.

BUY, PT EUR 83, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=405989e84bf8eb7cb442586cf7f702cc

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2378330 06.08.2026 CET/CEST

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