Original-Research: Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG

25.09.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE

Company Name: Verbio SE

ISIN: DE000A0JL9W6

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 41

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Jorge Gonzalez

FY25/26: Strong cash generation confirms the turnaround

VERBIO reported strong Q4 and FY25/26 results, broadly in line with its

preliminary figures and our estimates. Q4 EBITDA reached EUR 88.2m, compared

with a loss of EUR 8.2m in Q4 FY24/25 and EBITDA of EUR 60.2m in Q3, bringing FY

EBITDA to EUR 193.9m from EUR 14.2m a year earlier. Bioethanol/Biomethane

division was the largest Q4 contributor, generating EUR 55.0m of EBITDA versus

a EUR 26.3m loss a year ago. The segment benefited from strong European

ethanol spreads (eNuW: c. EUR 380/t versus c. EUR 100/t a year earlier), higher

GHG quota prices (up more than 300% yoy to c. EUR 400/t) and improving

utilisation in the US. Biodiesel EBITDA rose 58% yoy to EUR 32.8m. Higher GHG

quota prices were a key driver, while increased volumes and rapeseed oil

purchased in advance at favourable prices helped VERBIO improve its realised

margin despite a much weaker market spread (eNuW: c. EUR 10/t versus c. EUR 90/t

in Q4 FY24/25).

The midpoint of FY26/27 guidance is fully in line with our forecast. VERBIO

expects EBITDA of EUR 210-250m, implying reported growth of 8-29% yoy.

Management expects higher US production, rising biomethane volumes and a

greater contribution from GHG quotas to drive growth (eNuW: c. EUR 60m after

adjusting for extraordinary quota volumes in FY25/26). These gains should be

partly offset by a slight decline in Biodiesel earnings and some easing in

European ethanol spreads.

The underlying growth implied by guidance is stronger than the reported

comparison suggests. FY25/26 EBITDA included a EUR 19m reversal of write-downs

on GHG quotas generated in calendar 2024. Excluding this item, FY26/27

guidance implies growth of approximately 20-43%. Separately, quotas usable

only for the 2027 obligation year remain on the balance sheet at EUR 131m,

with the majority expected to be realised in FY27/28. On our assumptions,

potential proceeds exceed EUR 220m, providing a significant medium-term cash

catalyst.

The return to a dividend highlights the strength of the cash flow recovery.

Operating cash flow reached EUR 165m in FY25/26 and free cash flow amounted to

EUR 78m, allowing net financial debt to fall from EUR 164m to EUR 92m. Including

lease liabilities, net debt stood at approximately EUR 128m, or 0.7x EBITDA.

Against this backdrop, VERBIO has proposed reinstating its dividend at EUR

0.20 per share.

The Capital Markets Day on 8 October should provide greater visibility on

value beyond the near-term recovery. As discussed in our initiation, we

expect further detail on the commercial rollout and medium-term earnings

potential of renewable chemicals. We will also look for an update on the

Nippon Gases CO capture facility at Zörbig, which began operating in

September 2025 and remains in ramp-up. At full utilisation, we estimate that

its CO savings could have a gross value of c. EUR 30m p.a. The partners are

also studying an extension of the cooperation to Schwedt, where we estimate

the potential CO savings could be roughly four times greater, although the

project remains at an early stage. Further clarity on the potential benefit

of US Section 45Z tax credits would provide another catalyst. We reiterate

BUY with a EUR 41 PT, based on average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCFY.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=e6f6f99228f92d0216ef675b27dd7696

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2405276 25.09.2026 CET/CEST

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