Original-Research: Somec S.p.A. (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Somec S.p.A. - from GBC AG

20.04.2026 / 10:30 CET/CEST

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Classification of GBC AG to Somec S.p.A.

Company Name: Somec S.p.A.

ISIN: IT0005329815

Reason for the research: Research study (Note)

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: 22.70 EUR

Last rating change:

Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

FY 2025 concluded with strong improvements in profitability and cash flow;

high order book opens up growth potential

Revenue trend FY 2025

On 25 March 2026, the Somec Group published its preliminary financial

results for the 2025 financial year. According to these figures, the

engineering company saw a reduction in consolidated turnover of 3.3% to EUR

370.02 million (PY: EUR 382.82 million), primarily due to adverse exchange

rate effects and an increased focus on higher-margin projects. On a constant

exchange rate basis, the reduction in revenue was 2.1%.

In terms of revenue composition, the majority of Group revenue

(approximately 59.4%) was attributable to the core division "Horizons". In

this business segment, a significant decline in revenue of 8.0% to EUR 219.8

million (PY: EUR 239.0 million) was recorded, primarily due to negative

exchange rate effects (revenue-reducing effect: approximately EUR 4.0 million)

and delays in the completion of glass façade projects in the USA and Europe.

In addition, the increased strategic focus on higher-margin glass façade

projects with particularly high added value also had a negative impact on

revenue performance.

In contrast, the second-largest segment, "Mestieri", performed differently,

with a significant increase in revenue of 6.4% to EUR 95.3 million (PY: EUR 89.6

million). This growth was driven by significant revenue contributions from

marine interior projects and increasing synergies between the three business

divisions. According to the company, the large, prestigious contracts

secured in recent months have confirmed the management's successful approach

to the "Mestieri" division, which has also been driven by increased

integration of the business unit into the Group.

Even in the "Talenta" segment, the smallest in terms of volume, a

significant increase in revenue of 6.1% to EUR 62.5 million (PY: EUR 58.9

million) was achieved. The growth in revenue was driven by an increase in

project volume in the kitchens and catering areas of the shipbuilding

sector. The expansion in maritime revenue was supported by a stronger

presence in foreign shipyards, thereby consolidating the Group's market

position among the industry leaders in this sector.

The Somec Group's order situation has also developed positively. The company

was thus able to significantly expand its order book at the end of the past

financial year to EUR 771.0 million (31 December 2024: EUR 744.0 million)

compared with the same date the previous year. Furthermore, the engineering

company has already secured orders with a total value of more than EUR 95.0

million beyond the balance sheet date of 31 December 2025.

Our consolidated revenue estimate was therefore missed (GBCe revenue: EUR

387.76 million), primarily due to the "Horizons" core segment performing

significantly weaker than expected (particularly with regard to top-line

performance in the final quarter).

Earnings performance in the 2025 financial year

In terms of earnings, the Somec Group was able to achieve significant

improvements in earnings and, consequently, profitability across all profit

levels, despite the decline in turnover, primarily thanks to an increased

focus on higher-margin projects. Operating profit (EBITDA) rose

significantly by 12.7% to EUR 33.32 million (PY: EUR 29.58 million). At the same

time, the EBITDA margin improved significantly to 9.0% (PY: 7.7%). The rise

in margins reflects the multi-year management strategy with its increased

focus on selected high-margin contracts, a (better) balance in the revenue

mix and greater cost efficiencies.

Adjusted for non-recurring items (e.g. from restructuring or one-off

effects), adjusted EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) of 14.0% to EUR 34.31 million (PY: EUR

30.09 million) was achieved. The adjusted EBITDA margin (Adj. EBITDA margin)

also increased significantly to 9.3% (PY: 7.9%).

In terms of the breakdown of earnings, the majority of consolidated EBITDA

(approximately 61.0% of consolidated EBITDA) was attributable to the core

business segment "Horizons", with the "Mestieri" division being the primary

driver of earnings. The "Horizons" segment suffered a significant decline in

Adj. EBITDA to EUR 20.9 million (PY: EUR 25.5 million) due to a weaker glass

façade business, which was negatively impacted in particular by raw material

tariffs on the US market. The Adj. EBITDA margin for this segment performed

significantly more robustly, declining moderately to 9.5% (PY: 10.7%) and

thus remaining at a margin level close to double digits.

In stark contrast to this, the "Mestieri" segment performed strongly, with a

sharp rise in Adj. EBITDA to EUR 8.3 million (PY: EUR 0.3 million) and a dynamic

improvement in the Adj. EBITDA margin to 8.8% (PY: 0.4%). This enormous

improvement in key figures is primarily attributable to a strong performance

in the area of ship interior projects, which has also benefited

significantly from reorganisation and reintegration measures (including

management restructuring and improvements to project management) implemented

within the segment in recent years.

The "Talenta" division also performed well, with a significant 19.0%

increase in Adj. EBITDA to EUR 5.0 million (PY: EUR 4.2 million), resulting in

an improved Adj. EBITDA margin of 8.0% compared with the previous year (PY:

7.2%). The significant increase in earnings is based on a strong performance

in maritime projects in the ship galley sector.

The positive earnings trend is also reflected in a significant improvement

in cash flow from operating activities. As a result of the further

significant margin improvement and the markedly positive effects of working

capital optimisation measures, operating cash flow at the end of the past

financial year increased significantly year-on-year to EUR 37.60 million (31

December 2024: EUR 27.44 million).

Thanks to strong cash generation, net debt (Net Financial Position / NFP)

and the debt ratio (Leverage NFP / EBITDA) improved significantly to EUR 36.5

million (PY: EUR 58.6 million) and 1.06x (PY: 1.95x) respectively. By the end

of the current financial year, the engineering company is even forecasting a

further improvement in leverage to below 1.0x.

The Somec Group has thus fulfilled its qualitative guidance regarding a

significant improvement in operating margins and a reduction in the debt

ratio (lower leverage). Our EBITDA forecast (GBCe: EUR 33.17 million) was also

achieved.

Taking into account depreciation, financing and tax effects, a significantly

improved consolidated net profit (after minority interests) of EUR 4.82

million (PY: EUR -3.30 million).

Forecasts and model assumptions

With the recent publication of its preliminary financial results, the Somec

Group has not provided a detailed outlook for the current financial year

2026. Nevertheless, during the last conference call, Somec's management

expressed optimism that the company is likely to return to a growth

trajectory in the current financial year, thanks to its currently strong

order book.

In view of the revenue performance in the past financial year falling short

of our expectations and the increasingly challenging environment (e.g. Iran

conflict, tariff burdens, oil price shock, etc.) for the company, we have

revised our previous revenue estimates downwards. For the current financial

years 2026 and 2027, we now forecast consolidated revenue of EUR 379.94

million (previously: EUR 401.23 million) and EUR 389.87 million (previously: EUR

419.83 million) respectively. With regard to the following year, 2028, which

we have included in our detailed forecast period for the first time, we

expect revenue of EUR 399.73 million.

In view of the recent strong improvement in margins and cash flow, which was

in line with our expectations, we have only slightly reduced our previous

earnings estimates. For the financial years 2026 and 2027, we now anticipate

EBITDA of EUR 36.25 million (previously: EUR 36.53 million) and EUR 38.13 million

(previously: EUR 39.79 million) respectively. For the subsequent financial

year 2028, we anticipate a further increase in EBITDA to EUR 40.53 million.

Accordingly, in line with the expected growth, the EBITDA margin, which was

most recently 9.0%, should continue to improve gradually to a forecast 10.1%

in the 2028 financial year.

Against the backdrop of a strong order book at the end of the 2025 financial

year amounting to EUR 771.0 million and the additional orders secured so far

this year totalling almost EUR 100.0 million, Somec should succeed in

returning to a growth trajectory in the current financial year. The Group's

maritime business across the various divisions and the still relatively new

"Mestieri" growth project are expected to continue to act as drivers of

growth in the short and medium term. The "Mestieri" division has recently

gained significant momentum and should be able to continue its expansion,

particularly through its increased focus on the promising "luxury

hospitality" segment (i.e. luxury hotels, resorts, boutiques, etc.).

Based on our revised forecasts, we have calculated a new target price of EUR

22.70 (previously: EUR 23.35). Our slight reduction in the target price stems

from our increase in the cost of capital following the rise in the risk-free

interest rate (from 2.5% to the current 3.0%). The inclusion of the 2028

financial year in our detailed forecasting period for the first time had a

positive impact on the price target, leading to a higher baseline for

forecasts in subsequent financial years. With regard to the current share

price level, we continue to assign a "BUY" rating and see significant upside

potential in the Somec share.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=476d1a6c5c717c446e7b8dfe6c28facb

Contact for questions:

GBC AG

Halderstrasse 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher

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Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

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Date (time) of completion: 17/04/2026 (17:40)

Date (time) of first distribution: 20/04/2026 (10:30)

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2310806 20.04.2026 CET/CEST

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