Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG

13.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

Company Name: Scandinavian Astor Group AB

ISIN: SE0019175274

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: SEK 46

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Q2 review: new scale, H2-weighted, chg.

A quarter that changed the group. Q2 was the first period with Nordic Shield

Group (NSG) in the perimeter, consolidated for a single month, and the

reported numbers show a company roughly twice the size of a year ago: sales

+89% yoy and a record order book up 111%. Meanwhile, underlying

profitability dipped on shifted deliveries and product mix, with the

deliveries landing in H2 and mix guided to normalise. Martin Elovsson took

over as CEO in May and has continued the buy-and-build toward a Nordic

defence ecosystem, adding PBH Teknik most recently.

Q2 sales rose 89% yoy to SEK 171m, carried by acquisitions (Carbonia,

Ammunity and one month of NSG). Organic growth was slightly negative, due to

shift effects. A larger contract won earlier slipped out of the quarter

after the customer requested a different delivery configuration. These

volumes are expected to come in H2.

Q2 underlying EBITDA came in roughly flat yoy at c. SEK 11m, a 6.2% margin

(-5.8pp yoy). Three effects explain this: i) shift effects into H2, ii) a

worse product mix in the protect segment and iii) ramp-up cost for capacity

increases, following supportive customer dialogues. At the same time, the

Industry segment (44% of Q2 sales) has maintained a strong margin of 20%

(+9pp yoy), driven by a larger share of high-margin defence related

contracts (similar to Q1) that is expected to persist (eNuW). Reported

EBITDA arrived at SEK 142m carrying a SEK 132m NSG revaluation gain.

Strong backlog to support H2, despite soft order intake. Q2 order intake of

SEK 81m implies a book-to-bill of 0.5x. Procurement cycles have lengthened

as individual contract sizes have grown. Noteworthy, Astor books fixed

contracts only, with framework agreements not part of the calculation. As

prime contractors (Astor's customers) have strong order books, it should be

a matter of timing until Astor receives its share, especially as the company

points to a high level of quotation activity and to positive ongoing

customer dialogues. The order book stood at SEK 610m end of Q2, of which SEK

595m is scheduled for delivery in 2026. This renders our estimated H2 sales

of SEK 559m conservative and leaves room for further unforeseen phasing

effects.

NSG generated SEK 180m of sales at a 17.8% EBITDA margin in the five months

to end-May, before consolidation. Annualised, that is close to half the

enlarged group, at a margin well above what Astor reported in Q2. While this

quarter had only one month of NSG fully consolidated, H2 will carry six and

should thus perform well.

In sum, Astor enters the second half with a record backlog, a structurally

higher Industry margin and PBH Teknik closing in September to add precision

manufacturing capacity into Mikroponent, while the Protect volumes which

shifted out of Q2 are expected to land in the same window. Meanwhile,

uncertainty from the soft order intake appears to be already reflected in

the valuation, improving risk-reward, in our view. In fact, a European

defence supplier peer group is trading at PER (2027e) of 22x vs. Astor's

12x.

Action: we raise 2026 profit estimates by the NSG book value gain and

reflect the PBH acquisition in our numbers, starting September. At the same

time, we reflect the order intake uncertainty and increasing risk-free rates

in a higher discount rate (8%; previously: 7%).

BUY, PT SEK 46 (old: SEK 54), based on a valuation mix of DCF and a peer

group analysis.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=1fe1d919eb4437a98c81e1908b6bf074

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2382042 13.08.2026 CET/CEST

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