Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

^

Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG

22.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

Company Name: Scandinavian Astor Group AB

ISIN: SE0019175274

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: SEK 27

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Less sail, same course, chg.

Astor's growth potential remains attractive, although order timing warrants

a more cautious earnings outlook. We cut estimates and our PT to reflect

sustained order intake weakness and delivery risks, while retaining BUY. Q3

should bring sequential margin recovery, with Industry, Ammunity and NSG

supporting growth beyond near-term procurement delays.

Underlying demand is seen to support stronger order intake ahead. Q2 order

intake of SEK 81m implied a book-to-bill of just 0.5x. Quarterly intake can

be lumpy in defence, with larger individual contracts and lengthy government

procurement processes affecting award timing. The SEK 610m June backlog

provides substantial coverage, with SEK 595m scheduled for delivery in 2026,

although Q2's slippages highlight the risk of further postponements. While

September's SEK 35m Protect order and October's SEK 33m Marstrom award are

encouraging, the announced wins have yet to establish a sustained recovery

(eNuW). Nevertheless, strong backlogs at Industry's prime contractor

customers should eventually feed through into supplier orders as production

ramps up (eNuW). In Q2, Astor also highlighted high quotation activity, with

ongoing customer discussions supporting further capacity investment. These

signals support our expectation that order intake will regain momentum in Q4.

Still, our revised forecasts allow more time for contract awards and

deliveries to materialise (eNuW).

Three pillars support the growth case. The Industry segment provides a solid

manufacturing base, with its stronger defence mix supporting EBITDA margins

of >20% (eNuW). Ammunity's capacity expansion offers substantial organic

upside (capacity to increase by up to 6x vs 2025 level), with Latvian

government procurement the key variable in converting capacity into sales,

in our view (see p.2). NSG's FY27 growth should benefit from ammunition

stockpiling, tighter infrastructure-protection requirements and rising

civil-protection budgets, driving demand for its secure storage, hardened

data centres and shelters (eNuW).

Q3 should bring sequential margin recovery. Sales look set to arrive at SEK

240m (+205% yoy), including SEK 154m from acquisitions (eNuW). Industry

should contribute c. SEK 50m, assuming the H1 sales pace of c. SEK 25m per

month and allowing for a month of summer holidays. Protect should generate

c. SEK 190m, supported by NSG's first full quarter of consolidation and c.

SEK 5m of deliveries shifted from Q2 (eNuW). EBITDA is set to rise 87% yoy

to SEK 29.8m (eNuW), implying a 12.4% margin versus Q2's underlying 6.2%.

The 6.2pp sequential recovery should benefit from delayed deliveries, a more

normal product mix and NSG's larger contribution. It also comes without the

previous at-equity margin support: NSG now contributes both sales and

earnings through full consolidation.

Fresh capital to support further acquisitions. September's SEK 114m gross

equity raise increases financial flexibility. Astor is evaluating targets

with combined sales above SEK 850m and EBITDA above SEK 125m. The pipeline

offers further growth potential beyond the existing portfolio, subject to

transactions being agreed and completed.

Action: We lower sales estimates by on avg. 12% for 2026-28e. Lower

fixed-cost absorption, dilution from the capital increase and a

corresponding model overhaul reduce EPS by on avg. 37% over the same period.

We reiterate BUY with a new PT of SEK 27 (old: SEK 46), based on a blend of

DCF and peer group valuation. - continued -

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=dd6e6348cf15b8d300e468ff2701eff4

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

++++++++++

Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

++++++++++

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements,

Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.

View original content:

https://eqs-news.com/?origin_id=89aac485-cddf-11f1-9d22-0a083a71a9ab&lang=en

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2420048 22.10.2026 CET/CEST

°