Original-Research: OIO Group (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: OIO Group - from GBC AG

16.07.2026 / 13:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of GBC AG to OIO Group

Company Name: OIO Group

ISIN: KYG3R95P1244

Reason for the research: Initial Coverage

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: 4.44 USD (3.87 EUR)

Target price on sight of: 31/12/2027

Last rating change:

Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

The expected ramp-up in vehicle production and further scaling of the

P-platform open up significant growth potential

Following the completion of the acquisition of De Tomaso at the end of April

2026, the OIO Group (formerly ESGL Holdings Ltd.) has entered the

ultra-luxury automotive sector. With its hypercar business activities, the

OIO Group is thus operating in the fast-growing ultra-luxury automotive

segment, which, according to various market studies (McKinsey & Company,

Oliver Wyman), is expected to see long-term (average) sales growth of around

14.0%.

The past financial year 2025 was characterised exclusively by the

environmental and recycling business. Owing to a decline in waste management

services, OIO recorded a moderate year-on-year fall in turnover during this

financial period to USD 5.83 million (PY: USD 6.10 million). Owing to this

decline in revenue and a general significant increase in the cost base, a

negative operating result (Adj. EBITDA) of -USD 1.37 million (PY: USD 2.32

million) was recorded. A decline was also recorded at the net profit level,

to USD -4.76 million (PY: USD -0.63 million).

By entering the hypercar segment, the OIO Group intends, via De Tomaso, to

benefit disproportionately from market growth in the ultra-luxury car

segment (targeting luxury car collectors and UHNWIs with its own models).

The growth strategy being pursued is based primarily on expanding the

vehicle range (new limited-edition models and model variants) and the

distribution network to increase market presence and strengthen the De

Tomaso brand through strategic partnerships and merchandising initiatives.

In the short to medium term, the OIO Group's revenue growth, as we

anticipate it, is expected to be driven predominantly by De Tomaso's

business activities (the hypercar business) and, in particular, by the

gradual ramp-up of production of the limited-edition De Tomaso P72 and P900

models, which have already been launched on the market. Specifically, we

anticipate that production (followed by customer deliveries) of these two De

Tomaso models at external manufacturing partners will commence at the end of

2026, peak in the subsequent financial year 2027, and conclude in 2028.

In addition, we expect the first spin-offs and model variants of the P72 to

be launched in limited editions in 2027 and to be produced between 2028 and

2030. These should then lead to new peaks in production and sales in 2028

and 2029. At the same time, we anticipate that around 2027 the first

completely new vehicle models based on the existing P platform will also be

launched on the market and will subsequently go into production in limited

editions as well; these new models are expected to significantly boost the

forecast production level in 2030 in particular. Accordingly, we expect De

Tomaso production to rise rapidly from an expected seven vehicles in 2026 to

212 vehicles in 2030.

Based on our forecast sales and production volumes (with estimated vehicle

prices ranging from around USD 1.20 million to around USD 4.90 million) for

the individual financial years, we also anticipate strong revenue growth for

the current financial year and for the years that follow. With regard to the

current financial year 2026, we anticipate a sharp year-on-year increase in

consolidated revenue to USD 21.70 million (PY: USD 5.83 million), of which

an estimated USD 15.71 million is expected to be attributable to the De

Tomaso business, which is being consolidated for the first time, and only

USD 5.99 million to the traditional recycling and environmental business.

In line with the expected strong ramp-up of De Tomaso vehicle production in

the coming financial years, we anticipate a dynamic rise in consolidated

revenue to USD 402.05 million in the financial year 2030. Accordingly, we

project an average annual growth rate (CAGR27-30) of 107.5% for this period.

The Group revenue figures we forecast from the financial year 2027 onwards

are based almost exclusively on the projected strong expansion of the

ultra-luxury car business (>95.0%).

Thanks to its high degree of exclusivity and the brand's strong appeal, De

Tomaso has been able to command highly substantial prices for the vehicle

models it has launched to date (P72 and P900) amongst its traditionally very

affluent clientele. Thanks to this significant pricing flexibility, combined

with comprehensive cost control across the supplier network, we believe De

Tomaso should be able to achieve high gross profit margins of more than

50.0% (GBCe) on its limited vehicle sales in future.

Against this backdrop, we anticipate a strong improvement in EBITDA for the

current financial year 2026 compared with the previous year, to USD 3.42

million (PY: -USD 1.37 million) and, consequently, a return to operational

profitability. Looking ahead to subsequent years, based on the forecast

strong growth and expected significant economies of scale, we anticipate a

dynamic rise in EBITDA to USD 197.62 million in 2030. In parallel with this,

the EBITDA margin is expected to surge from a forecast 15.8% in 2026 to

49.2% in 2030.

As part of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of EUR

3.87 (or 4.44 USD) per share. Based on the current share price, this implies

an upside potential of approximately 125.4%. We are initiating our research

coverage of OIO Group with a "BUY" rating.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=a5719cdec190ab33182bd26467a1aba7

Contact for questions:

GBC AG

Halderstrasse 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR

Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher

Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a, 5b, 11); Einen Katalog möglicher

Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

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Completion: 16.07.2026 (11:20 a.m.)

First distribution: 16.07.2026 (13:00 p.m.)

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2366954 16.07.2026 CET/CEST

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