Original-Research: OHB SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG

16.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE

Company Name: OHB SE

ISIN: DE0005936124

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 340

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Stars align for a stronger order outlook

We view OHB's share price weakness as unjustified given the further

strengthening we expect in its order outlook. The company has secured a

nearly EUR 1bn order for IRIS², Sentinel is moving towards a final contract

and we now see greater order potential from SATCOMBw 4. Q3 should show

continued growth, with the main programme-driven earnings uplift still

ahead. Upcoming contract awards should act as key share price catalysts.

IRIS²: key award secured, with further upside. OHB secured a nearly EUR 1bn

order in Q3. The contract covers the development and production of 18 medium

Earth orbit (MEO) satellite platforms for IRIS², the EU's secure, sovereign

communications network for government and commercial users. The award

reinforces OHB's position as one of Europe's leading MEO satellite

manufacturers, extending its Galileo track record into secure

communications. We expect first revenues in Q4, with annual sales peaking

around 2028-29 as the programme moves from development into production

(eNuW). Poland's plan to fund six additional MEO satellites offers scope for

an OHB follow-on order worth c. EUR 200m (eNuW).

Sentinel: next major ESA award moves closer. OHB and ESA have signed a

letter of intent for Sentinel-3 Next Generation Topography, marking progress

towards a final contract in Q4. The Copernicus mission will improve

sea-level and ice monitoring, reinforcing OHB's position in European Earth

observation. We estimate a potential order intake of c. EUR 650m (eNuW).

SATCOMBw 4: EUR 5-7bn order potential. The planned low Earth orbit

constellation will provide the Bundeswehr with secure, sovereign

connectivity. The EUR 10bn investment figure cited during the Bundestag's

September defence budget debate is incrementally positive, supporting our

assumption at the upper end of the previously discussed EUR 8-10bn range.

Industry discussions have led us to assign a larger proportion of the

programme value to OHB's anticipated satellite and associated

ground-infrastructure work. We therefore raise our estimate of OHB's share

to 50-70% (previously: 30-50%), implying potential order intake of EUR 5-7bn

in H1 2027 (eNuW). Confirmation of the contract value and OHB's allocation

should act as a share price catalyst and be accompanied by a first earnings

contribution in 2027e (eNuW).

RFA: new CEO ahead of maiden flight. Former HENSOLDT Sensors COO Alexander

Dahm joined as CEO, bringing industrialisation expertise. ESA's 23 September

update still listed launch-pad hot-fire testing as outstanding. Winter

weather at SaxaVord increases the risk of a launch slipping into 2027

(eNuW). A delay would defer a potential catalyst, but should leave our

estimates and investment case unchanged given the well-known uncertainty

around launch timing and success.

Q3 preview: continued growth ahead of the larger ramp-up. Total output is

expected to rise 16% yoy to EUR 347m, driven by continued conversion of the

existing backlog, which stood at c. EUR 3.3bn at end-H1 and is seen to climb

to c. EUR 4.2bn after 9M (eNuW). We forecast EBITDA to increase by 16% yoy to

EUR 39m (eCons: EUR 37m), implying an 11.2% margin (+0.1pp yoy).

Reiterate BUY, PT EUR 340, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=377c16f20025a4297ebe8c8e43fa50c3

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2416972 16.10.2026 CET/CEST

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