Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG

30.04.2026 / 18:13 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.

Company Name: Global Fashion Group S.A.

ISIN: LU2010095458

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 1.0

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Q1 results confirm the positive margin trajectory; BUY

GFG reported Q1 group NMV of EUR 215m, down 3% yoy on constant currency. Sales

of EUR 138m were down 4.3% yoy (cc). While the top line remains soft, broadly

in line with our cautious H1 expectations on the back of a muted consumer

sentiment in ANZ and Brazil, the margin story is the real takeaway in our

view. The group delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of -3.8% vs. -7.3% in Q1

2025, a 3.5pp improvement driven by cost discipline and a gross margin of

46.5% (+0.5pp). This clearly underpins the company's positive bottom-line

momentum.

Customers: quality over quantity. Active customers declined 4.8% yoy to 7.2

million, but order frequency rose 1.9% and average order value increased

5.2%. This is a familiar and healthy pattern as GFG is shedding low-value

shoppers while its engaged base spends more per visit. The KPI mix is

consistent with a maturing marketplace model where marketplace take-rates

and platform services increasingly drive economics, rather than sheer

volume.

Gross margin expansion continues. At 46.5% in Q1, gross margin is up

meaningfully yoy and above the FY24 level of 44.9%. This reflects the

ongoing mix shift toward asset-light marketplace (which reached 42% of NMV

at end-Q1 2026), reduced discounting, and a leaner inventory profile. With

the marketplace share likely to continue growing through 2026, further gross

margin improvement is structurally embedded, in our view.

Regional divergence persists. In Q1, ANZ remains the growth engine,

delivering +3.5% cc NMV growth with active customers up 3.7% yoy to 2.0m.

LATAM (NMV -4.3% cc) was impacted by a weaker consumer sentiment in the

regions key market, Brazil. SEA continues to be the drag, with NMV down

12.3% cc and active customers falling 15.1% to 1.8m, still the most

challenged part of the portfolio, though the rate of decline continues to

gradually ease. Importantly, GFG has already implemented several measures

(e.g. streamlined product and brand assortment, increased marketplace and

service revenues and sharpened customer proposition), which should allow the

region to return to profitable growth within the next one to two years.

Management reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for cc NMV growth in the range of

-4% to +4% yoy (eNuW: 0.8%) and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 15-25m (eNuW: EUR 19m).

The guidance had been set with an explicit acknowledgement of softer H1

trading, meaning Q1 has come in as expected. A materially positive H2

remains the base case and is unaffected by today's release.

Thesis intact, re-rating catalysts in sight. The investment case of GFG is

based on three pillars: (1) a structural margin improvement driven by

marketplace mix shift and cost rightsizing, (2) a return to top-line growth

creating operating leverage and (3) a achieving positive NFCF. Importantly,

all three pillars are already in motion; FY25 was the first year with

positive adj. EBITDA, cash burn was significantly decreased and growth has

returned in two out of three regions.

With EUR 86m in net cash and a negative enterprise value, the market continues

to price in an outcome that the operational data simply does not support. We

hence confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged EUR 1.00 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=fc0041011256d12cb17d27c4dd608afc

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2319660 30.04.2026 CET/CEST

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