Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG

11.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG

ISIN: AT00000VIE62

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 59

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Q3 preview: Malta to cushion softer Vienna traffic, chg.

Flughafen Wien will report Q3 results on 19 November. We expect cost

discipline and continued growth in Malta to cushion weaker traffic and lower

airport charges in Vienna. The results should reinforce our view that FY26

guidance remains too cautious, even with a subdued winter already embedded

in our estimates.

Malta continues to cushion Vienna's traffic decline. Reported group

passenger numbers fell c. 1% yoy to 13.1m in Q3. Vienna declined c. 6% yoy

to 9.2m, reflecting less low-cost carrier capacity and Middle East

disruption. Malta grew c. 13% yoy to 3.5m, supported by additional airline

capacity. Together with Vienna's lower airport charges, this should lead to

Q3 sales of EUR 308m, down 4.1% yoy (eNuW).

Cost discipline should protect profitability. EBITDA is expected to come in

at EUR 160m, down 3.3% yoy, implying a 0.4pp margin improvement to 51.9%.

Lower staffing levels should continue to cushion wage inflation. The benefit

was already visible in Q2, when personnel expenses fell 2.8% yoy. Malta's

higher traffic should provide additional operating leverage. Net profit

after minorities is seen at EUR 86.3m, down 5.5% yoy.

The guidance still implies an excessive Q4 slowdown. Against our 9M EBITDA

estimate of EUR 387m, the EUR 425m full-year target leaves just EUR 38m for Q4.

This implies a 58% decline versus Q4 25, adjusted for the EUR 55.9m

third-runway charge (Q4 25 one-off). Our new FY26 EBITDA estimate of EUR 440m

implies EUR 53m in Q4, c. 40% above the guidance-implied level, yet still

conservatively down 42% yoy on an underlying basis.

Resilient demand should cushion winter capacity cuts. Austrian Airlines' 3%

Q3 passenger growth across its network despite higher fares highlights

underlying demand strength. Higher fuel costs have prompted the airline to

cut network-wide winter capacity by 5%, with Ryanair also reducing its group

winter plans. These adjustments fit the subdued winter already assumed in

the forecasts. FWAG may need to offer higher incentives to retain airline

capacity in Vienna, tempering group EBITDA margin expansion in 2027e (9M

26e: +1.6pp yoy, eNuW). In Malta, where winter frequency additions largely

offset reductions, structural demand growth should support higher seat load

factors and further passenger growth.

The 2027 recovery has drivers beyond passenger growth. Inflation-linked

tariff adjustments should support revenue after the 2026 reset. T3 South

remains on time and on budget for a Q2 2027 opening, expanding Vienna's

retail and gastronomy space by c. 50% and adding new lounges. This should

lift hospitality revenue per passenger (eNuW: +17% yoy in 2027e). Meanwhile,

flight-tax relief remains undecided, with Finance Minister Marterbauer

ruling out unfunded abolition on 9 November. Political support for a

reduction is growing. Any cut would improve Vienna's cost competitiveness.

The high-quality infrastructure case remains intact. FWAG owns its Vienna

infrastructure outright, with no concession expiry. Aviation, retail and

property income provide a diversified earnings base with long-term exposure

to growing air travel. Net cash of EUR 265m and an equity ratio of 72% at H1

provide financial flexibility to fund expansion and dividends (c. 3.4%

yield).

Action: FY26 EPS raised by c. 2% on better traffic assumptions and 2027 D&A

slightly increased for T3 South's expected Q2 opening.

BUY, with unchanged PT at EUR 59, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=ddc42a72e31b230b2167ff33e51b41e0

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2432322 11.11.2026 CET/CEST

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