Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

06.01.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 5.2

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Normalization following 2 volatile seasons; chg.

Following a mixed 2024/25 season, which was highlighted by reaching the UCL

quarterfinals but also showed sluggish performances in the Bundesliga, where

BVB only reached the top-4 thanks to an impressive recovery run towards the

end of the seasons, the club looks now set for a normalized campaign.

After a solid performance in the first 15 Bundesliga games, BVB entered the

winter-break in 2nd place, being 5 points clear of 5th placed Hoffenheim.

Despite being 2nd, winning the Bundesliga is not in the cards in our view,

given the dominant performance of Bayern Munich thus far (3.3% probability

according to betting providers), which is why the focus should be on

finishing in the top-4 (95% probability) - the current hurdle to achieve UCL

qualificaftion.

In contrast, BVB's domestic cup campaign ended earlier than expected (eNuW:

quarterfinals), with the team being eliminated in the round of 16. As a

result, prize money from this competition will be lower than anticipated,

which is why we slightly adjust our forecast (EUR 1.7m direct top-line

effect).

A similar picture can be observed in the UCL, where BVB sits 10th after 6

games and is already qualified for the knockout stage of the competition.

With two matches remaining in the league phase (Tottenham away & Inter Milan

at home), BVB still has a 26.2% chance of finishing in the top-8 (according

to an Opta simulation) and thereby avoiding the play-off round. Given the

strength of the remaining opponents, we forecast BVB to finish in the low

teens, which should result in a beatable opponent in the play-off round

(seeded format) and allow them to reach the round of 16. That said, we

currently do not expect the team to advance beyond this stage, leaving some

upside to our model (quarterfinal prize money: EUR 12.5m). Overall, we

estimate UCL prize/TV money of EUR 78m for the 2025/26 season.

Based on the athletic performance of the squad as well as new sponsoring

contracts (i.e. Vodafone, Puma, Polestar, Rewe), FY25/26e sales are seen to

come in at EUR 507m (-3.7% yoy). The yoy decline is mainly attributable to the

one-off impact of the FIFA Club World Cup, which took place in the US during

the summer and was largely recognised in FY24/25 (EUR 33.9m; FY25/26e: EUR 13m),

as well as the team's run to the UCL quarterfinals in the prior season.

Despite that, we expect an EBITDA improvement to EUR 135m (26.6% margin)

driven by improved net transfer income (EUR 52.9m in Q1 25/26 vs 37.8m in

FY24/25) following Jamie Gittens transfer to Chelsea.

Action. Minor FY25/26e forecast changes reflect earlier than expected

domestic cup exit.

That being said, shares continue to trade at an undemanding 0.8x EV/Sales

FY25/26e (vs 2.1x peer group median). We hence reiterate BUY with an

unchanged PT of EUR 5.20 based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=d0181557de2482811c46ef7e1c2aedb0

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2255044 06.01.2026 CET/CEST

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