Original-Research: 2G Energy AG (von Parmantier & Cie. GmbH): Sell

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Original-Research: 2G Energy AG - from Parmantier & Cie. GmbH

15.10.2026 / 14:30 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of Parmantier & Cie. GmbH to 2G Energy AG

Company Name: 2G Energy AG

ISIN: DE000A0HL8N9

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Sell

from: 15.10.2026

Target price: EUR 39.00

Target price on sight of: 3-6 months

Last rating change: n/a

Analyst: René Parmantier

2G Energy AG: 2026 Guidance Now Hinges Almost Entirely on the Second Half.

PARMANTIER & CIE. Research Reiterates Sell

Half-year report shows a 0.6% EBIT margin, operating cash flow financed by

customer advances, and an order backlog of over EUR 600 million with no

delivery-year breakdown. SEC filings confirm Energy Vault paid a USD 17.0

million reservation fee, not a purchase-price deposit. Price target

unchanged at EUR 39.00.

Frankfurt am Main, October 15, 2026. 2G Energy AG (ISIN DE000A0HL8N9) today

published its 2026 half-year report. PARMANTIER & CIE. Research has reviewed

the report together with the filings Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. submitted

to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in its research

update dated October 15, 2026 reiterates its Sell recommendation. The EUR

39.00 price target is the valuation conclusion of our research model; it

stands roughly 29% below the Xetra closing price of October 14, 2026 of EUR

54.85.

Key takeaways

* First-half revenue of EUR 136.0 million (prior year: EUR 169.9 million),

EBIT of EUR 0.8 million (prior year: EUR 5.7 million), EBIT margin of

0.6%.

* To meet the confirmed guidance (revenue of EUR 440-490 million, EBIT

margin of 9.5-10.5%), we calculate that the second half must deliver EUR

304-354 million of revenue and roughly 98% of full-year EBIT.

* The EUR 39.5 million operating cash flow rests on a EUR 123.2 million

increase in received customer advances - customer pre-financing, not

freely available liquidity.

* The order backlog of more than EUR 600 million is neither broken down by

delivery year nor reconciled.

* For Energy Vault, SEC filings document a USD 17.0 million reservation

fee. The mid-double-digit-million advance payment reported by 2G is not

independently documented there.

1. First half: revenue down about 20%, EBIT near zero

Group revenue fell roughly 20% to EUR 136.0 million, and new-plant revenue

fell 36.4% to EUR 52.6 million. EBIT dropped to EUR 0.8 million. Management

cites one-off IT-project costs, higher depreciation and an early build-up of

headcount among the reasons. The report was published later than usual

because of the transition to a new ERP system.

2. Guidance requires an unprecedented second half

In the foreword, management states it expects a strong second half, "so that

we should reach the revenue and earnings guidance." By our calculation, the

guidance requires EUR 304-354 million of second-half revenue - 2.2 to 2.6

times first-half revenue. The implied second-half EBIT margin would be

12.9-14.9%, up from 0.6% in H1 and 6.6% for full-year 2025. 2G recognizes

revenue from its first data-center order only as individual plants arrive in

the U.S.; deliveries begin in Q4. Any delay in production, shipping or

acceptance pushes that revenue directly into 2027.

3. Advances finance the ramp-up; they are not revenue

The EUR 123.2 million is the change in received advances during the first

half, not the balance and not recognizable revenue. At June 30, 2026 the

balance sheet shows EUR 162.8 million of received advances on the liability

side; a further EUR 41.4 million is netted against inventories. Gross, that

is roughly EUR 204 million (our calculation), including advances under

full-maintenance contracts. The cash flowed into higher raw materials and

supplies (plus EUR 36.5 million) and work in progress (plus EUR 48.2

million); advances paid to suppliers rose EUR 28.4 million. The EUR 29.3

million cash position equals roughly 18% of the advances recorded as

liabilities. Management describes a "strong balance sheet"; the equity ratio

fell from 51.0% to 38.3%.

4. An order backlog above EUR 600 million: size without maturity

2G reports an order backlog of roughly EUR 200 million at the start of the

year and over EUR 600 million at June 30, 2026. A simple roll-forward using

EUR 479.4 million of new orders and EUR 136.0 million of revenue yields

about EUR 543 million (our calculation). The gap may have definitional

reasons; the report does not explain it. What matters is which part of the

backlog is delivered and recognized as revenue and earnings in 2026, 2027 or

2028. That figure is not disclosed.

5. Energy Vault: reservation documented, advance payment reported

According to Energy Vault's quarterly report (Form 10-Q), the company

entered into a production-slot reservation agreement with 2G Energy Inc. in

May 2026 and had paid a total of USD 17.0 million in reservation fees by

July. The agreement did not obligate either side to sign a purchase

contract; the fee is credited only if the contract is executed by the

applicable deadline. On September 23, 2026, 2G announced a 275 MW order and,

on September 29, stated the customer had made a mid-double-digit-million

advance payment to replace the reservation. On August 14, 2026, an Energy

Vault subsidiary entered into a secured credit facility of approximately USD

137.5 million to finance power-generation equipment. The supplier is

redacted in the filed agreement; a draw of up to USD 38.4 million is

scheduled for August 2026, with maturity on January 2, 2028. Whether this

facility finances the 2G order is not confirmed. If it did, the advance

payment would in our view be largely debt-financed. We have corrected our

earlier characterization of a parallel order placed with Rolls-Royce MTU:

Energy Vault's September 10, 2026 announcement of 275 MW on Rolls-Royce MTU

technology may refer to the same capacity.

Investment view

Demand for decentralized power generation is real. As long as the second

half must carry almost the entire annual result and the maturity of the

order backlog is not disclosed, we view the risk/reward as negative. We

reiterate our Sell recommendation with a EUR 39.00 price target, the

valuation conclusion of our model.

What investors should now demand

First, a maturity analysis of the order backlog by delivery year (2026,

2027, 2028) reconciled to the opening balance. Second, a delivery schedule

for the data-center orders with expected acceptance and recognition dates.

Third, a reconciliation of received advances by new-plant versus maintenance

contracts, by major order, and by cash versus bank guarantee. Fourth,

transparent confirmation of the major customer contracts: counterparty,

payment milestones, cancellation terms, and any guarantees or

advance-payment bonds issued by 2G after June 30, 2026.

Important notice: This publication summarizes the independent research

update by Parmantier & Cie. GmbH dated October 15, 2026 on 2G Energy AG and

constitutes an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation

(EU) No 596/2014 (Market Abuse Regulation). It is not investment advice and

not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The study was

prepared independently and is neither commissioned nor compensated by the

issuer. The recommendation and price target are based on Parmantier & Cie.

Research's valuation model and assumptions and may change. Rating system:

Buy above +15%, Hold -15% to +15%, Sell below -15% expected share-price

performance over a twelve-month horizon. Disclosures on conflicts of

interest, positions, recommendation history and methodology are included in

the full study.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=1220f7a36e0d7b74809473eda199a5c1

Contact for questions:

Parmantier & Cie. GmbH

René Parmantier, Analyst

Hungener Strasse 6, 60389 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

rp@parmantiercie.com

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2416646 15.10.2026 CET/CEST

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