Weekly Outlook: “The main thing is that the price of oil is significantly lower again”
The Middle East conflict continues to have a firm grip on the markets. At the moment, things appear to be easing, and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are continuing. However, the situation remains fragile.
June 22, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Although the U.S. is facing heavy criticism for the framework agreement with Iran, this is not having an impact on the stock markets. “For nervous investors, companies hurt by supply chain disruptions and rising gasoline prices, and consumers stressed by inflation, the assessment of the framework agreement is likely to play a rather minor role,” says Helaba analyst Ulf Kraus. “The main thing is that the oil price is significantly lower again.”
The price has fallen significantly recently. On Monday morning, a barrel of Brent crude (XC0009677409) was trading at $79—well below the peak of $119. The DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 25,067 points on Monday morning, up from 24,997 at Friday’s close. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) had already reached a new all-time high last week. There is a lack of momentum from the U.S. market: Trading did not take place on U.S. stock exchanges on Friday due to a holiday.
“Significant Improvement in Risk Sentiment”
“The framework agreement significantly improves risk sentiment,” comments Pascal Reichert of Commerzbank. However, following the sharp gains since early April, the stock markets are likely to take a breather for the time being. “But we see further potential through the end of the year, as corporate earnings are expected to continue to perform strongly.”
“A Stalemate in the Coming Weeks”
However, the situation remains fragile. Conflicting reports are circulating regarding the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is putting the framework agreement to the test. Christoph Geyer remains cautious: “The coming weeks will show how sustainable the agreement in the Middle East will be and how market participants assess it,” explains the technical analyst. If the conviction takes hold that lasting peace is possible, there is a chance of a breakout above the record highs. If the situation escalates again, this will lead to a pullback into the previous resistance zone. “We can still expect a period of uncertainty in the coming weeks.”
Christoph Geyer
“Pension Reform Is a Good Step in the Right Direction”
The proposals from the Pension Commission for pension reform in Germany—which were leaked over the weekend and include, among other things, a funded supplementary pension based on the Swedish model—have been generally well received by the market. “The proposals to reform the German pension system are clearly a step in the right direction,” commented ING Chief Economist Carsten Brzeski. Now, he said, it is up to the government to demonstrate its commitment to reform and implement the plans as quickly as possible.
Key Economic and Business Data
Monday, June 22
New Composition of the DAX Indices: The index changes announced on June 5 take effect today. Among other changes, Hochtief is now a member of the DAX, replacing Porsche SE, which is now part of the MDAX. The MDAX has three additional new members: Suss Microtec, Elmos Semiconductor, and Siltronic.
- All changes: live.deutsche-boerse.com
Tuesday, June 23
10:00 a.m. Eurozone: June Purchasing Managers’ Index. Commerzbank believes that the framework agreement negotiated between the U.S. and Iran is likely to bring relief to many companies in the eurozone. This is expected to be particularly evident in the Purchasing Managers’ Indices.
Wednesday, June 24
10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for June. Since most responses were likely submitted before the framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached, Commerzbank expects the ifo Business Climate Index to have shown only a modest recovery.
Thursday, June 25
2:30 p.m. U.S.: Consumer Spending Price Index (excluding food and energy), May. According to DekaBank, from a monetary policy perspective, the index is likely to have risen too sharply month-over-month for the sixth consecutive time. While prices for goods are expected to decline, rents are also likely to have risen less sharply than in the previous month. However, an extremely sharp month-over-month price increase is expected for other services.
2:30 p.m. U.S.: May Durable Goods Orders. DekaBank expects a 5 percent decline from the previous month, though this is due to a negative rebound effect in commercial aircraft manufacturing.
By Anna-Maria Borse, June 22, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and business editor specializing in financial markets, the stock market, and economic issues.
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