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17/12/25 13:17:13

Market sentiment: “Domestic caution and international risk appetite”

Now, at least the professionals are taking a liking to German stocks and are following the lead of some of their international colleagues, while private investors are tending to exit the market or switch to the bear side. Joachim Goldberg knows whether these positions pose a risk for the end of the year.

German blue chips remain unchanged from the previous week, even though there was a brief upturn in the meantime. Among professionals, 10 percent have withdrawn from short positions and 8 percent have switched to the long side. Joachim Goldberg suspects that this is not out of necessity, but rather because of significant profits. The sentiment index rose to +16 points. The situation is different for private investors, 10 percent of whom sold shares. The behavioral economist suspects that this group has “already closed the books in some cases.” Rightly so?

Goldberg assesses the mood as relatively neutral to pessimistic and sees no imbalances. Much more relevant, he says, is the attitude of international investors, who are once again buying more shares, including European ones, and whose cash holdings are at a rare low: a classic contraindication. He is cautiously optimistic about the next few days.

17 December 2025. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). It has now been a week since the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting, but the impact on the DAX was actually quite modest. In fact, following the 25 basis point interest rate cut and the interest rate forecasts for the coming year, the index initially rose, but the gains soon evaporated.  In the end, the index posted a meager weekly gain of 0.2 percent. The trading range of 1.9 percent also proved to be comparatively narrow.

Meanwhile, the Bank of America's fund manager survey for December, published yesterday, revealed a high appetite for risk among international asset managers. Particularly striking is the record-low cash ratio of 3.3 percent, coupled with an increased preference for equities worldwide. A net 42 percent (previous month: 34 percent) of international fund managers stated that they were overweight in this regard; incidentally, this is the highest level in a year. This was also beneficial for eurozone equities. These were once again in greater demand. Eighteen percent of fund managers (previous month: 9 percent) stated that they were overweight in this area, particularly in German stocks. This may also support our hypothesis from last week as to why the DAX did not come under pressure despite significant sell-offs by domestic institutional investors: this supply has apparently been absorbed by international demand.

Quickly closing the books

Meanwhile, the mood among the institutional investors we surveyed with a medium-term trading horizon has improved again compared to the previous week. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index rose by 18 points to a new level of +16. The bear camp has shrunk by 10 percentage points, with 80 percent of those willing to switch positions at the end of the year wanting to try their luck on the long side again or adjust their positions in line with their balance sheets. The remaining fifth of investors have therefore joined the neutral camp. And based on the DAX performance, we can see that decent profits were once again realized in many places.

Among private investors, we see a trend in the opposite direction. In this panel, sentiment has deteriorated compared to the previous week: our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index has fallen by 15 points to a new level of +5. If we exclude the investors surveyed via social media, we can literally hear how trading books were quickly closed in some places. This is because the bull camp has shrunk by 10 percentage points, with around half of these investors moving to the bear camp or becoming neutral. In this respect, there is a gap in sentiment between investors surveyed via social media and other private investors, with the latter being even less optimistic.

Professionals more positive than private investors

Today's survey also revealed a clear discrepancy between private investors and institutional investors, albeit with the opposite sign: suddenly, professionals are much more optimistic than their private counterparts. However, looking at the relative sentiment in this quarter, there is no trace of this optimism left; in fact, we are seeing slight pessimism. This suggests that the strong short positions from the previous week have been reduced again. The German stock market sentiment index of +16 therefore looks better than it actually is. There is also no reason to fear that the DAX will come under pressure from profit-taking, especially as it can be assumed that these positions will not change significantly due to the end of the year.

All in all, no major imbalances are to be expected, so that the DAX could at most be more strongly influenced by long-term capital shifts. Today's domestic positioning will hardly play a role in this.
 

Dies ist die letzte Stimmungserhebung für dieses Jahr. Wir melden uns am
7. Januar 2026 wieder und wünschen den Teilnehmern und Lesern unserer Sentiment-Umfragen ein gesegnetes Weihnachtsfest und ein erfolgreiches neues Jahr!

by Joachim Goldberg

17 December 2025, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse

 BullishBearishNeutral
Total45%29%26%
vs. last survey+8%-10%+2%

DAX (changes vs. last survey): 24.150 points (+50 points vs. last survey)
Deutsche Börse Sentiment-Index institutional investors: 16 points (+18 points vs. last survey) 

 BullishBearishNeutral
Total40%35%25%
vs. last survey-10%+5%+5%

DAX (change vs. last survey): 24.150 points (+50 points vs. last survey)
Deutsche Börse Sentiment-Index private investors: 5 points (-15 points vs. last survey) 

The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line.