Market sentiment: “Now more than ever?”

March 11, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Looking back at the development of the stock markets since our last sentiment survey, we can certainly speak of a certain resilience in light of the war in Iran and the temporary sharp rise in oil prices. Of course, starting from an interim high of around 24,366 points, the market fell again by just under 6 percent, but there was also a significant recovery, which can be attributed at least in part to US President Donald Trump, who on Monday evening raised hopes among financial market players that the war could soon be over.

Although this hope very quickly proved to be illusory and it became clear to many stock market traders that, unlike the trade tariffs announced last year on Liberation Day, the US president would not be able to back down so easily on his own this time, the DAX's weekly loss of 1.3 percent remained within manageable limits.

A lot of purposeful optimism

Meanwhile, the mood among the institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon that we surveyed has improved compared to the previous week. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index rose by 8 points to a new level of +33. Interestingly, this change is almost entirely attributable to former bears who have joined the ranks of neutral investors, presumably closing out their positions at a healthy profit. On balance, there has been virtually no change among the optimists compared to the previous week. It can be assumed that these are not primarily bullish positions held out of conviction. Rather, the unfavorable purchase price in many cases – regardless of all geopolitical and fundamental considerations – is likely to be the main motive for holding on to these positions.  

The situation is quite different for private investors, whose Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index stood at +10 last week, well below that of their institutional counterparts. Currently, sentiment here has improved by 23 points compared to the previous week to a new level of +33 – at the expense of the bear camp, which declined by 14 percentage points. The fact that substantial profits were probably realized is particularly evident from the fact that almost two-thirds of those willing to switch sides have ventured directly onto the bull side, i.e., they have turned their commitments around 180 degrees. The remaining third of former pessimists have moved to the sidelines. However, if we only take into account those investors who we did not survey via social media, the Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index for this subgroup is only +28, which is below the overall index.

Strong performance by private investors

On balance, today's survey has closed the gap in sentiment between private and institutional investors that existed last week. It should be noted that the majority of the former are likely to have performed extremely profitably. The sentiment indices in both panels are at their highest level of the year. In particular, the bullish commitments of institutional investors are most likely not in the profitable range; even the interim recoveries of the DAX have apparently not been sufficient in these cases to come close to the cost prices. In this respect, these commitments represent a burden for the DAX. On the one hand, if recoveries should once again reach the 24,600/24,650 range – the level at which we now expect increased selling. On the other hand, the DAX remains comparatively unprotected on the downside in the event of a renewed sell-off (especially after falling below 22,850/900 points), especially since in this case, long-term capital inflows from abroad are unlikely. 

von Joachim Goldberg

March 11, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse

The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line.

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