Market sentiment: “Seeking help in history”

March 4, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Just last week, many investors were wondering whether the DAX might reach a new all-time high—it was less than 100 points away. Then came the weekend, after which everything would be different: the war in Iran triggered a global slump in stock prices, with the local DAX alone losing nearly 7.1 percent of its value at times. This despite the fact that a geopolitical shock was no longer among the three biggest event risks that international fund managers had in mind in recent weeks. In mid-February, most of them had said in a Bank of America survey that they were more afraid of an AI bubble.

In light of the recent slump in share prices, many commentators, not only in this country, are now poring over the stock market annals in search of historical parallels. In recent history, there are a number of events that may be reminiscent of 2022, when an energy crisis broke out in Europe as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, if we place last week's losses in the context of stock market history, the introduction of US trade tariffs on Liberation Day in April last year had a much more severe impact, with the DAX sentiment falling by over 10 percent in a single week. However, these comparisons do not always seem meaningful, but are probably intended to help answer the question of whether the decline of the past few days (4.6 percent) might not already present another buying opportunity for stocks – or whether it would be better to wait.

New courage

At least the institutional investors we surveyed with a medium-term trading horizon have a clear position on this. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index rose by 11 points compared to the previous week to a new level of +25. The group of neutral investors has almost disappeared, now accounting for only 9 percent of all respondents—the lowest level in more than ten years. The bull camp has benefited most from this exodus, growing by 14 percentage points, while 3 percent of all respondents moved toward the bear camp.

There was also a significant decline in the number of neutral investors among private investors. Here, there was a decline of 14 percentage points, which, in contrast to institutional investors, was entirely in favor of the bears. In this context, our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index fell by 14 points to a new level of +10. Incidentally, a large part of this development is attributable to the private investors we survey via social media – if this subgroup is excluded, the shift towards the bears is not quite as pronounced.

... but skepticism among private investors

On balance, today's survey reveals a clear divide in sentiment between private and institutional investors. However, both groups have in common a low proportion of neutral investors; even among private investors, this figure is only 10 percent of those surveyed. On the other hand, institutional investors in particular have regained a certain amount of courage and in some cases dared to buy into the weakness, even though the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains completely unclear. We therefore see this as a short-term move by optimists, which may be enough to trigger a recovery to 24,650/24,700 points. At that level, we expect to see at least some initial profit-taking, meaning that today's sentiment is likely to weigh on the DAX. This will be all the more true if the hoped-for price gains do not materialize in the near term.

The downside remains poorly supported, especially as the tendency of long-term investors to continue overweighting European stocks is likely to be limited. A look at the euro against the US dollar suggests that long-term buying interest from abroad appears to have waned.

by Joachim Goldberg

March 4, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse

The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line.

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