Market sentiment: “Illusion of an upward trend”

February 25, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Optimism had recently spread among many institutional investors in Germany, most likely linked to the desire to break the weeks-long stalemate on the DAX. In fact, there have been two attempts, but both petered out not far above 25,300 points. What remains is a trading range of just under 1.8 percent since our last sentiment survey – a range that seems quite modest given the news situation. After all, stock market traders had to digest the US Supreme Court's ruling on trade tariffs – with all its consequences and uncertainties – and there was little encouraging news from the US on the AI front either. This is despite the fact that last week's February survey by Bank of America revealed that international fund managers now see the greatest extreme risk in an AI bubble. However, a weekly decline of 0.4 percent on the DAX does not indicate excessive fear.

However, some of the optimism that prevailed among the institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon whom we surveyed last week has now faded. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index has fallen by 11 points to a new level of +14. The bull camp has shrunk by 7 percentage points, with the group of investors willing to switch sides divided roughly equally between bears and neutral investors.

Not very satisfied

It is interesting to note in this context that the former optimists appear to have been satisfied with comparatively low profits, given the narrow trading range since last Wednesday. Seen in this light, at least some of the players have lost faith in sustained price increases, although not too many have directly switched their position from long to short.

Among private investors, however, there was a movement in the opposite direction. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index in this panel rose by 6 points to a new level of +24 – in contrast to the trend among institutional investors. Three percent of all respondents switched from the bearish to the bullish side, i.e., they reversed their commitment by 180°. Interestingly, this development can be observed equally among both the investors we survey via social media and the other players: the percentage of those willing to switch was actually the same in both groups.

However, if we exclude those private investors whom we do not survey via social media, the sentiment index for this subgroup stands at +14, which is the same level as that of institutional investors. At least between these two groups, there is currently no gap in sentiment.

Stalemate

Even though the sentiment of institutional investors, at +14, still shows a positive surplus in absolute terms, optimism is returning to a neutral level in relative terms over three and six months. At the same time, the upside remains quite impervious between 25,700 and 25,750 DAX points due to the threat of profit-taking by the remaining optimists.

On the downside, however, demand from domestic sources has improved somewhat, and we expect buying interest in the 24,700/750 point range. No major trends are expected due to the positioning of domestic investors. Once again, the fate of the DAX seems to lie in the hands of long-term investors, primarily from abroad.

by Joachim Goldberg

February 25, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse

The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line.

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