Market sentiment: “Would you like a little more?”

February 4, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). We do not know which of the many pieces of information since our last sentiment survey have had a lasting impact on stock market traders in this country. The outcome of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting is unlikely to have played a significant role in driving prices. However, the name Kevin Warsh, whom US President Donald Trump nominated as the future Fed chairman at the end of last week, was cited in many quarters as the trigger – whether justified or not – for some violent market developments.

The stock markets suffered only temporary setbacks, while the metal markets, especially silver, were hit by crashes. For many stock market traders, information about geopolitical developments took a back seat. It is quite possible that the sheer volume of news overwhelmed the capacity of many players to take it all in. In the end, the DAX managed to recover impressively, but had given up at least some of its interim gains by the time of today's survey, resulting in a weekly loss of 0.6 per cent.

Trading range not appealing

Despite a trading range of 3.3 percent since our last sentiment survey, our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index of institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon has not changed compared to the previous week and remains at +12. At least the polarization between bulls and bears has decreased somewhat, with both camps losing 2 percentage points each. In other words, there has been a fairly clear profit-taking on both sides. Ultimately, the group of neutral investors, accounting for 36 percent of all respondents, is at its highest level in almost exactly one year.

The situation is different for private investors, however. The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index rose by 12 points in this panel to a new level of +23. This increase is primarily due to a 10 percentage point increase in the bull camp and is almost entirely attributable to those we survey via social media. If we exclude their share, the remaining investors have behaved in much the same way as their institutional counterparts. With one small difference: the polarization between bulls and bears has decreased slightly compared to the previous week. However, the sentiment index in this subgroup stands at +4, which results in a fairly significant gap in sentiment compared to private investors surveyed via social media.

A mood gap has also emerged between private and institutional investors – the former are now also significantly more bullish on balance. Today's survey clearly shows that a trading range of 3.3 percent since last Wednesday was obviously not attractive enough for professional investors to establish new positions on a larger scale or to realize profits. The latter applies above all to the pessimists, from whom one might have expected a little more activity on the downside. After all, the DAX's temporary dip of 2.3 percent might have generated more demand at other times.

Domestic investors did not prop up the DAX

The bottom line is that the slight optimism of the previous week has remained, but when viewed in relative terms – in relation to the mood so far this year or over a three- or six-month period – it dissipates, leaving a neutral positioning in the end. One could also say that there are probably no major imbalances among domestic investors. In order to lure the current optimists out of their reserve for profit-taking, the DAX would first have to rise to 25,300/350 points, where we expect the first major supply. On the other hand, to tempt the pessimists into closing out their positions, the stock market barometer would probably have to fall to a level between 24,050 and 24,100 points. This is a level that could also be interesting for new entrants, such as those from the camp of neutral investors. Overall, the downside (so far also with international demand) is better underpinned.

by Joachim Goldberg

February 4, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse

The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line.

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