Weekly outlook: “Waves in the Arctic Ocean have calmed down”

Although things have calmed down for now with regard to Greenland, the issue has not been forgotten. Uncertainty remains high, as evidenced by the new high in the price of gold. Other important topics include the reporting season and the US Federal Reserve meeting. 

January 26, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The easing of tensions in the Greenland conflict is leading to stronger stock market prices. “After an exciting week with probably the most frequent mention of Greenland in the last 4,000 years, the capital markets should now turn their attention to other issues,” explains Commerzbank analyst Martin Roth. “The waves in the Arctic Ocean have calmed down, at least for the financial markets.” However, it is impossible to predict whether the chapter has finally come to a peaceful end. Ulf Krauss from Helaba is also still skeptical: “The unanimous opinion is that the all-clear cannot be given. German export companies in particular are now sobering up when it comes to planning security,” he notes.

The DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 24,865 points on Monday morning, down from 24,900 at Friday's close and 25,508 at its record high two weeks ago. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is also not far from its record high. The US markets closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones down and the Nasdaq 100 up. The price development of precious metals remains striking: the price of a troy ounce of gold recently exceeded US$5,000 for the first time, while silver exceeded US$109. Currently, prices are slightly lower again. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has fallen back below $90,000. 

“DAX at 30,000 points in two years”

Sabrina Reeh from DWS still sees significant upside potential for the DAX. “We also have a positive outlook for German equities in 2026. One reason for this is that we expect greater market breadth and depth, especially if there is an economic recovery,” explains the fund manager. A key factor is the expected increase in profitability. “The market consensus expects earnings growth of around 16 percent for DAX companies in 2026.” Although the DAX valuation is no longer cheap with a P/E ratio of 16, the relative valuation is still attractive as other European indices have also risen. “If valuation multiples remain stable and earnings forecasts are met, corporate earnings could fundamentally justify a price level of over 30,000 points in just two years,” says Reeh. 

Weber Bank: No “Sell America”

Weber Bank remains constructive about the US markets, citing the US economy and the fundamentally sound condition of US companies as reasons for its optimism. “Economic momentum remains high, with growth of at least 2 percent expected this year,” explains portfolio manager Max Hanisch. Fed interest rate cuts are likely to further underpin the strength of the US market. The labor market is also stable. A look at global financial flows shows that the US remains a sought-after investment market for equities. “Political decisions will continue to have a short-term impact on trade flows and market fluctuations in the future, but the often-cited investor exodus from the US is not apparent. We do not expect it either,” he emphasizes. Safe havens outside the US, such as gold, are likely to remain highly sought after, however.

US Federal Reserve meeting: no change expected

One highlight of the week will be the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. “Our analysis of recent speeches and interviews by FOMC members shows that the Fed is likely to leave its key interest rate unchanged,” comments Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank. Attention will also be focused on quarterly reports: In the US, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, and Apple, among others, will be opening their books during the week. In Europe, quarterly reports will be released by ASML and LVMH, among others, and in Germany by SAP and Deutsche Bank.