Weekly outlook: “Seasonal tailwinds”

The DAX is still treading water. However, seasonal factors are repeatedly being cited—because year-end rallies do indeed occur frequently. Meanwhile, warnings of an AI bubble are growing louder.  

November 3, 2025. FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). The DAX continues to lag behind the US stock market. While the DAX has been moving sideways since May, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq reached new highs again last week. “It seems that some investors are doubting whether the new government can really bring the German economy back to sustainable growth due to persistently disappointing economic data,” comments Andreas Hürkamp of Commerzbank.

The trade dispute has calmed down somewhat. “The trade policy waves seem to have been smoothed somewhat by the meeting between the two most powerful men in the world, Trump and Xi,” explains Ulf Krauss of Helaba. For Western industries, the announcement of a solution for the supply of rare earths is particularly important.

On Monday morning, the DAX (DE0008469008) stood at just over 24,000 points, up from 23,958 points at the close of trading on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) and the US markets closed slightly below their record highs on Friday. The development of Bitcoin is currently striking: the price is now only USD 107,000, after peaking at over USD 124,000 at the beginning of October. The price of gold (XC0009655157), on the other hand, has risen above the $4,000 mark again and is currently at $4,022.

Warnings about AI bubble grow louder

“Investor sentiment is driven by corporate earnings growth—and these are currently running at full speed,” notes Ulrich Stephan of Deutsche Bank. However, there are also cautionary voices: despite rising profits and largely positive stock market reactions, skepticism about possible overheating is growing. Critics warn of an investment bubble and question real returns and the availability of resources. “As with all groundbreaking innovations, the advent of AI will also have disruptive effects that will separate the winners from the losers.”

“Returns particularly positive at the end of the year”

However, according to Bernd Meyer of Berenberg, the environment for equities remains very favorable. “The combination of the Fed's key interest rate cuts, solid economic data, and positively surprising corporate results should give equities a relatively good year-end performance,” he explains. Seasonal tailwinds should also not be neglected. Historically, returns on EU and US equities over the following three months are particularly positive in October and November. “But we are also positive about equities because investors are not overly positioned in the market.”


 

„25.000 Punkte schnell möglich“

Important economic and financial data

Monday, November 3

Japan: Stock market closed/public holiday.

4:00 p.m. USA: ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. According to Helaba, regional survey results for October were mixed, suggesting little change on balance.

Wednesday, November 5

8:00 a.m. Germany: September order intake. Commerzbank expects more positive news from the German economy this week, forecasting a 3 percent increase in order intake compared to the previous month.

Thursday, November 6

8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial production in September. Commerzbank considers another slump unlikely. Although sentiment indicators for industry have hardly improved recently, they have not fallen noticeably either. In addition, there has been a counter-movement in the automotive industry following the slump in August.

1:00 p.m. United Kingdom: Bank of England interest rate decision. The Bank of England is likely to extend its pause in interest rate cuts and leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, according to DekaBank. Higher inflation gives it room for a wait-and-see approach. In addition, central bankers will probably want to wait for the British government's new budget at the end of November.