Weekly Outlook: Oil Prices Set the Pace Once Again

News from the Middle East is once again driving the markets. However, this week will also see a slew of corporate earnings reports, as earnings season picks up steam. 

July 13, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The war in Iran is back on the agenda and has the markets on edge. The ceasefire in the Middle East appears to have broken down, and oil prices are rising again. Martin Roth of Commerzbank points out, however, that oil prices have remained well below the “alarm levels” seen in the spring. “This suggests that most market participants view the recent events as a temporary disruption and generally expect talks between Iran and the U.S. to continue.” The DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 25,005 points on Monday morning, down from 25,095 at Friday’s close. Last week, it had reached a new all-time high of 25,894 points.

Roth notes that AI remains an important topic, and now corporate earnings reports for the second quarter are in focus. “What’s surprising in this context is that—unlike usual—many analysts have raised their estimates ahead of the quarterly results,” he remarks. This means the bar for positive surprises is set higher.

“Positive earnings trends are likely to support the stock’s performance”

DekaBank is also keeping an eye on the earnings season, which is picking up steam this week. Tomorrow, Tuesday, five U.S. banks will report their results, followed by ASML and TSMC on Wednesday and Thursday. “The consensus expects strong earnings growth of 21.7 percent for the S&P 500 and 15.7 percent for the Stoxx 600,” reports Chief Economist Ulrich Kater. For the DAX, the outlook is more subdued at 3.2 percent. “The outlooks will be particularly interesting, especially the AI investment plans of the tech heavyweights.” Kater expects U.S. companies to significantly exceed estimates. “The encouraging earnings trend should continue to support stock price performance in the medium term.”

DWS Downgrades Semiconductors to Neutral

According to DWS Chief Investment Strategist Vincenzo Vedda, the outlook for the stock markets remains positive—primarily due to the continued strong earnings prospects. “However, we are seeing some nervousness in the market,” Vedda notes. One sign of this is the decline in valuations. Earnings estimates have recently risen more sharply than stock prices. Vedda sees some shifts taking place across sectors. “We have downgraded the semiconductor sector to Neutral,” he explains. While the sector is the main beneficiary of the AI boom, DWS is taking a slightly more cautious stance in the short term following the enormous gain of around 90 percent in the SOX semiconductor index during the second quarter. “If clients’ willingness to spend were to wane because the high investments did not yield the promised profits, this could weigh on the sector.”

Key Economic and Business Data

Monday, July 13

SMAG Mobile Antenna Masts AG IPO

Tuesday, July 14

2:30 p.m. U.S.: June Consumer Price Index. In the U.S., gasoline prices have fallen significantly due to the decline in oil prices, according to Commerzbank. As a result, the U.S. inflation rate is likely to have fallen in June, even though the World Cup temporarily increased inflationary pressure. The annual rate is expected to drop from 4.2 to 3.8 percent, while the core rate—excluding food and energy—is expected to fall from 2.9 to 2.8 percent.

Wednesday, July 15

4:00 a.m. China: Second-Quarter GDP. According to DekaBank’s assessment, Chinese economic growth in the second quarter was primarily weighed down by weakness in investment and retail sales. Gross domestic product is expected to have grown by 4.5 percent year-over-year, which is 0.5 percentage points weaker than in the first quarter.

4:00 a.m. China: June retail sales/industrial production.

Thursday, July 16

2:30 p.m. U.S.: June retail sales. DekaBank forecasts an increase of 0.3 percent, following 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Friday, July 17

3:15 p.m. U.S.: Industrial production for June. According to surveys, a slight increase of 0.2 percent compared to the previous month is expected.