Weekly Outlook: “Oil Prices Higher, DAX Lower”

After an exceptionally strong Friday, the outlook on the stock market looks bleaker again on Monday morning—because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed off once more. However, the recent oil price highs and stock market lows are still some way off.

April 20, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Euphoria is giving way to disillusionment: The fact that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed again is driving up oil prices and causing stock prices to fall. Although negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are reportedly set to resume, the U.S. military recently attacked an Iranian freighter.

“The sharp American threats and the restrained Iranian reactions underscore how fragile the ceasefire is,” comments Rolf Schäffer of LBBW. “The recent rally in the stock markets was based more on hope than on solid agreements.”

“The U.S. government’s interest in reaching an agreement as quickly as possible”

“Despite the renewed escalation, the dispatch of Special Envoys Witkoff and Kushner, as well as Vice President Vance, to Islamabad for new talks underscores the U.S. government’s interest in reaching an agreement as quickly as possible,” explains Yannik Mosbach of Bankhaus Metzler. He believes that developments in this and the coming weeks will be pivotal for the global economy’s trajectory for the rest of the year. “The longer the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts, the more severe the impact on the real economy will be.”

A barrel of Brent crude cost $95 on Monday morning, up from $90 on Friday. The DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 24,400 points on Monday morning, down from 24,638 at Friday’s close. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658160) is also weaker. On the U.S. markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had reached new all-time highs on Friday. 

“No Oil Crisis Like in the 1970s”

Commerzbank has compared the current crisis to other oil crises. Its conclusion: Despite a sharper decline in oil production, industrialized nations would likely suffer less from the current energy crisis than they did during the two oil crises of the 1970s. “This is because prices have risen less sharply than back then, and today’s economy is significantly less ‘oil-intensive,’” explains Bernd Weidensteiner. Even factoring in natural gas prices does not change this conclusion. However, supply chain issues pose a significant risk. “Therefore, it is still too early to sound the all-clear.”

“Further price increases, especially for AI beneficiaries”

But it’s not just about oil: Sascha Rehbein of Weber Bank points out that the innovation surge from the U.S. driven by new AI models continues unabated. “Analysts’ earnings forecasts are constantly being revised upward, which applies particularly to the tech sector,” he explains. The earnings season in the U.S. has also gotten off to a strong start and has surprised on the upside in terms of both earnings and revenue. The bank therefore remains constructive and expects further price increases—particularly for AI beneficiaries such as chip manufacturers.