Weekly Outlook: Oil Prices Fall, DAX Rises

The ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict is boosting sentiment, and the DAX is rising sharply. However, doubts about AI valuations persist. The highlight of a week filled with economic and corporate data: the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

July 27, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). A mixed picture on the stock markets: On the one hand, the U.S. has paused its attacks on Iran, and oil prices have fallen again. “The U.S. has apparently suspended its attacks on Iranian targets, which had lasted nearly two weeks, while Tehran has also signaled that it will refrain from retaliatory strikes for the time being,” reports LBBW analyst Rolf Schäffer. Cautious optimism now prevails on the stock markets. “After days of uncertainty, hope is now returning,” explains Helaba analyst Ralf Umlauf. Risk appetite could increase at the start of the week.

The DAX stands at 25,400 points on Monday morning, up from 25,059 at Friday’s close. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is not far from its record high of 654 points. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil (XC0009677409) had stood at $100 on Thursday; it is now at $86.

“U.S. Companies Could Surprise on the Upside Again”

On the other hand, the correction in the tech sector continues. The Nasdaq 100 fell sharply again on Friday and closed just under 9 percent below its all-time high. According to Sören Hettler of DZ Bank, however, the gap between skepticism and optimism regarding artificial intelligence could be very narrow. “At least in recent quarters, (U.S.) companies have, on the whole, managed time and again to exceed market expectations—which were considered ambitious going in—and thus allay doubts about the long-term potential of artificial intelligence,” he notes.

A flood of economic and corporate data

In any case, the financial world is facing a data-heavy week. A wealth of data on inflation, growth, and market sentiment is due out. In addition, earnings season continues. “This week is by far the most important of the second-quarter earnings season,” explains Ulrich Kater of DekaBank. Companies representing 35 percent of the S&P 500’s market capitalization have reported earnings, as have 40 percent of the Stoxx 600 and 24 percent of the DAX. “The investment outlooks of the U.S. tech heavyweights will be extremely important, especially for the semiconductor sector,” he notes. Companies reporting include Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Deutsche Bank, BASF, Adidas, MTU, and Siemens Healthineers, as well as Microsoft, Meta, and Apple in the U.S.

“Arguments in Favor of a Pause in U.S. Interest Rate Hikes Prevail”

But that’s not all. “The highlight of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday,” says Leon Ferdinand Bost of Metzler. After all, he notes, the probability of an interest rate hike has recently climbed noticeably again due to rising energy prices and now stands at just under 32 percent. “This market uncertainty naturally also reflects the lack of forward guidance from the new Fed Chair, Warsh,” he notes. In light of the latest data, the bank continues to believe that the arguments for a wait-and-see approach outweigh those for a rate hike, particularly given the favorable inflation figures in June.

Key Economic and Business Data

Monday, July 27

10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for July.

Tuesday, July 28

Initial Public Offering (IPO): First day of trading for the photovoltaic company HELIOS SOLAR on the General Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Wednesday, July 29

8:00 p.m. U.S.: Interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. According to DekaBank’s assessment, the Fed is unlikely to make any changes to the target range for the federal funds rate. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are likely to feel that the latest labor market and inflation data confirm their wait-and-see stance.

Thursday, July 30

10:00 a.m. Germany: Second-quarter GDP. Commerzbank expects the German economy to have stagnated in the second quarter. Industrial production is likely to have remained largely unchanged. The gain in construction is expected to be offset by weak performance in some service sectors.

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Second-quarter GDP. DekaBank expects slight growth and forecasts an increase of 0.3 percent compared with the previous quarter and 0.7 percent compared with the previous year.

1:00 p.m. United Kingdom: Bank of England interest rate decision.

2:00 p.m. Germany: July consumer prices. Due to the expiration of the fuel subsidy, DekaBank expects an increase of 0.7 percent compared to June and 2.7 percent compared to the previous year.

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy).

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Second-quarter GDP. Commerzbank estimates that the U.S. economy likely grew by a solid 1.9 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Growth is driven by robust private consumption and a boom in private investment, particularly in artificial intelligence and IT in general.

Friday, July 31

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: July consumer prices. DekaBank expects inflation in the eurozone to have declined slightly to 2.7 percent in July. This is primarily due to favorable base effects in consumer prices for both energy and food. The bank expects the core inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.4 percent, with rising price pressures for industrial goods and slightly easing pressures for services.