Weekly Outlook: “Kicking Off June with a Bang”
Following a strong performance in May, the stock markets are starting the new month on an optimistic note. The war in Iran remains a key focus. However, the stock markets are also buoyed by a strong earnings season, lower interest rates, and the ongoing AI boom.
June 1, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The stock markets ended May with gains. The DAX (DE0008469008) rose 0.9 percent last week, while the Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) posted a gain of 0.1 percent. On the U.S. stock markets, gains were even higher at 1.4 percent (S&P 500) and 2.9 percent (Nasdaq 100). The indices also performed very well on a monthly basis. The DAX gained 3.3 percent in May, while the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 2.4 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 5.1 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively.
Iran Remains the Key Short-Term Factor
As the new week begins, the Iran conflict remains one of the most significant influencing factors. Strategists at Commerzbank note that a framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran recently seemed “within reach.” The market had likely already partially priced in this scenario. According to analysts, this is evidenced by the drop in oil prices, lower inflation expectations, and declining bond yields. Although the hoped-for breakthrough failed to materialize over the weekend and oil prices have risen slightly again, the DAX is barely changed on Monday morning. It had closed at 25,105 points on Friday.
Strong corporate earnings provide support
In addition to hopes for a timely agreement in the Iran conflict, the positive earnings season and the AI boom are also cited as reasons for the new highs on U.S. stock markets. The DAX has at least approached its previous high. Markus Reinwand of Helaba sees the differences between the major stock indices primarily in their sector structure. Technology and telecommunications have shaped recent developments. In the technology sector of the S&P 500, more than 90 percent of companies have surprised on the upside despite high expectations. Earnings growth has reduced valuations, even though Helaba does not consider the stocks to be cheap. However, Reinwand currently considers talk of a bubble to be exaggerated.
A Summer of Correction Risks
Given the recent price gains, it would not be unusual for the markets to take a breather. Commerzbank has already noted initial outflows from global equity funds and simultaneous inflows into bond funds. This could suggest that equities are benefiting less from a potential Iran deal than the bond markets. Robert Halver of Baader Bank also sees room for greater volatility. In his view, the speculative net long positions in the U.S. stock market indicate rising risk appetite. During the summer months, when trading volumes are lower, conditions could therefore become more volatile, particularly in response to new developments in geopolitics and monetary policy. At the same time, Halver does not see the markets as being in a state of exuberant euphoria.
Robert Halver
Jensen Huang Speaks in Taiwan
Today, Monday, investors’ attention is also turning to Taiwan. One day before the official opening of the Computex technology trade show, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is delivering a speech there. Last week, the Taiwan-born founder of the world’s largest chipmaker announced annual investments of $150 billion in the region, which he described as the “epicenter of the AI revolution.”
Technical Analyst Forecasts New Record Highs for the DAX
From a technical analysis perspective, the relative weakness of European stock indices compared to U.S. markets is particularly striking. Marcel Mußler also points to the mixed picture within Germany. “While the DAX took a breather, it was party time for the MDAX and SDAX,” the technical analyst says, describing the latest market developments. Nevertheless, he remains confident about Germany’s largest stock index as well: “We will also see it break out to the upside.” The DAX still needs to rise by around 400 points to reach a new all-time high. After that, the path is clear to the new upward trend channel established in March, which currently runs at 26,700 points.
Key Economic and Business Dates for the Week
Monday, June 1
4:00 p.m. U.S.: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. The index is expected to have risen slightly in May, signaling a somewhat more robust industrial economy. Deutsche Bank forecasts 53.2 points, up from 52.7 points in April; Commerzbank also anticipates a further improvement.
Tuesday, June 2
11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Inflation data. For the ECB, the core rate excluding energy and food is particularly relevant. Deka and Commerzbank expect an increase here from 2.2% to 2.4%. Headline inflation is also likely to be higher; Deka forecasts 3.2% and points to renewed price pressure in the tourism sector following the recent Easter holidays.
Taiwan: Start of the Computex technology trade show. Running through Friday under the motto “AI Together,” the trade show focuses heavily on artificial intelligence, computing, next-gen technologies, robotics, and mobility. With 1,500 exhibitors, Computex is setting a new record this year.
Wednesday, June 3
4:00 p.m. U.S.: Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector. Following a reading of 53.6 in April, the figure is expected to remain virtually unchanged. A reading well above 50 would continue to point to growth in the services sector. Commerzbank sees this as a sign of a continued solid U.S. economy.
8:00 p.m. U.S.: Economic report from the Federal Reserve. The Beige Book provides a current assessment of regional economic developments in the U.S. Of particular relevance to the markets is whether companies continue to report price pressure and whether the first signs of a slowdown are emerging in the labor market.
Friday, June 5
2:30 p.m. U.S.: Labor market data. Following strong previous months, job growth is likely to have been weaker. Deutsche Bank is particularly cautious, forecasting 65,000 new non-farm jobs, while Helaba and Commerzbank each expect 100,000. Deka points to positive one-off effects in previous months that are now likely to disappear. Commerzbank sees little room for new expectations of interest rate cuts at the Fed’s June meeting, even if the report is weaker. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and a 0.3 percent increase in wages compared to the previous month are also expected.
By Thomas Koch, June 1, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Thomas Koch is a CEFA investment analyst, investment specialist for structured products, and certified certificate advisor. Since early 2006, he has been covering capital market events as a freelance journalist.
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