Weekly Outlook: “High Noon of Earnings Season”

The war in Iran remains a risk factor, but this week the focus will be on central banks, economic data, and, above all, quarterly earnings reports. Earnings season in the U.S. is reaching its peak.

April 27, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The DAX (DE0008469008) is expected to start the new week with a slight gain. On Monday morning, the German stock index stands at 24,180 points. It ended the previous week at 24,128 points after a 2.3 percent decline. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) also suffered losses (2.5 percent). The major U.S. indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, on the other hand, had climbed to new record highs on Friday.

Several major central banks are set to meet this week. Helaba’s strategists do not expect either the Fed or the ECB to raise interest rates in the near term. In their view, however, the decisive factor will likely be how central bankers assess the impact of persistently high energy prices and what weight they assign to the economic outlook.

“Sideways movement amid volatility” expected

This tension also shapes LBBW’s analysis: Uwe Streich points out that, historically, rising inflation has usually been accompanied by falling valuation multiples in the stock markets. He attributes the strong performance of the relatively highly valued U.S. indices to a certain degree of complacency among investors as well as the FOMO effect. “Many investors likely jumped on the bandwagon far too late and therefore vowed that this would not happen to them again during the next price correction,” the analyst says, describing developments following “Liberation Day” and amid the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a renewed V-shaped recovery is hardly to be expected in the current situation; rather, a sideways trend with fluctuations stretching over months is more likely.

Energy remains a risk factor, but is not the sole driver

News flow from the Middle East is likely to remain a driver of volatility for the stock markets. However, companies are taking center stage much more prominently than recently. Alexander Krämer of Commerzbank describes the current situation as a phase in which investors are waiting for several signals at once: developments surrounding the ceasefire, cues from central banks, and the resilience of corporate earnings.

According to Deutsche Bank, companies representing around 44 percent of the S&P 500’s market capitalization are reporting this week in the U.S. The focus is particularly on the major tech companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft will release their earnings midweek, with Apple following on Thursday. In addition, major oil companies such as Exxon and Chevron, as well as other industry heavyweights, will present their results.

What matters most is the companies’ outlook

In this context, LBBW strategists refer to the “high noon” of earnings season. What matters most here are not so much individual earnings metrics as the outlooks, particularly regarding investment plans and demand. For the major platform and cloud providers, attention will focus primarily on signals regarding how ambitious the further expansion of AI infrastructure will be and whether expectations regarding costs, margins, and monetization are changing. The companies’ statements could also have an indirect impact on other market segments, such as semiconductor stocks or suppliers along the infrastructure chains. From the perspective of Commerzbank analysts, the bar has been raised following the rally of the past few weeks, making positive surprises more important, while profit-taking is likely in the event of disappointments.

Declining Earnings Expectations for DAX Companies

For German companies, the situation is further complicated by the fact that earnings prospects have recently dimmed. Uwe Hohmann of Metzler notes that consensus estimates for DAX earnings in 2026 have been significantly scaled back since the start of the year. Instead of 15 percent growth, an increase of only around 5 percent is now expected. In his view, it seems unlikely from today’s perspective that this trend could reverse anytime soon. While the DAX does not appear expensive to him at present, this impression is heavily based on the still very optimistic estimates for 2027 (a 15 percent profit increase), the fundamentals of which are currently difficult to substantiate.

Key Economic and Market Dates for the Week

Tuesday, April 28

10:00 a.m. Eurozone: Consumer inflation expectations (ECB survey). The focus is on whether households are once again anticipating stronger inflationary pressure due to recent increases in energy prices. The figures are seen as an important gauge of sentiment ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.

4:00 p.m. U.S.: Consumer Confidence (Conference Board). Most economists expect the index to decline from 91.8 to around 89 points. Deutsche Bank forecasts 88.8 points, while Helaba forecasts 90.0 points. Commerzbank notes that this indicator is less influenced by inflation and more by the labor market.

Wednesday, April 29

2:00 p.m. Germany: Consumer prices (preliminary). Economists expect a month-over-month increase of around 0.6 to 0.7 percent. Year-over-year, the inflation rate is likely to rise to about 2.9 to 3.0 percent (from 2.7 percent), with higher energy prices seen as the key driver.

8:00 p.m. U.S.: Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave the upper end of the target range at 3.75 percent. Deka emphasizes that policymakers are likely to maintain their wait-and-see stance; inflation excluding energy and food remains the key factor.

Thursday, April 30

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Inflation data. The year-over-year inflation rate is expected to rise from 2.6% to around 2.8% to 2.9%. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, and beverages), on the other hand, is expected to decline slightly to around 2.2 percent (from 2.3 percent).

2:15 p.m. Eurozone: European Central Bank interest rate decision. No change in key interest rates is expected. The key factor is likely to be whether President Lagarde provides any indication of whether the ECB views the inflationary effects as short-lived or whether a rate hike at one of the upcoming meetings is becoming more likely. Commerzbank notes that the market is already pricing in a high probability of a rate hike in June.

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Inflation data (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index). For the core rate, economists expect a month-over-month increase of around 0.3 percent. This indicator is considered particularly relevant for the Federal Reserve because it shapes its view of the underlying price trend.

Friday, May 1

Labor Day. No trading on the Deutsche Börse marketplaces.

4:00 p.m. U.S.: Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector. After 52.7 points in March, economists expect a slight increase to 53.3 points on average. LBBW is significantly more optimistic, forecasting 56.0 points.