Weekly Outlook: “Get Used to Oil Prices Above $100”

The situation on the oil market and developments in the Middle East continue to drive the stock market and dampen sentiment. In addition, several central bank meetings are scheduled for this week. Of particular interest: the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
 

September 14, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The sharp rise in oil prices is weighing on the stock markets. The price of a barrel of Brent crude climbed to a peak of $110 last week. As of Monday morning, it still stands at $107. “Inflation and interest rate concerns dominated last week,” reports Ralf Umlauf of Helaba. “At the start of the new week, little has changed in this challenging environment.”

“New, and even escalating, skirmishes between the U.S. and Iran are having a massive impact on market sentiment,” notes Robert Halver of Baader Bank. In addition, the attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabian oil facilities now also threatens the alternative route that had been used until now. According to Halver, the world may have to get used to an oil price even above $100. “After all, there are no signs that Iran is willing to engage in genuine negotiations.”

“Consolidation Continues”

The DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 25,443 points on Monday morning, down from 25,544 at Friday’s close. The index has thus fallen more than 1,000 points from its recent all-time high of 26,659 points. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is also trading lower. U.S. markets ended Friday—and an overall weak week—with gains. The price of gold is holding steady at $4,392 per troy ounce, while Bitcoin is trading just under $78,000.

Due to oil and natural gas prices and the sharp rise in yields, Commerzbank expects the consolidation trend to continue. “Since earnings season won’t pick up again until October, macroeconomic data and geopolitical factors in particular are likely to drive movement in the stock markets,” says André Sadowsky.

Warning About Superintelligence

AI remains a major topic. The CEOs of major AI companies recently issued a joint warning about the uncontrollable risks of superintelligence. OpenAI has canceled its initial public offering (IPO) for this year. “The AI euphoria is taking a hit,” comments Rolf Schäffer of LBBW, pointing to this morning’s price declines on Asian stock markets. The Korean KOSPI fell by 2.1 percent, as Schäffer reports, with losses among semiconductor stocks Hynix and Samsung weighing particularly heavily. “In Tokyo, SoftBank came under pressure, falling by as much as 13 percent at times.”

The question now is whether a more cautious pace of AI development could slow investments along the entire value chain and thus jeopardize the industry’s high profit expectations. “Many market participants do not anticipate a slump in AI investments,” he notes. Demand for computing power and infrastructure remains high. “Nevertheless, highly valued tech stocks in particular are vulnerable to doubts about the profitability of the massive investments.”

Fed Not “Diametrically Opposed to Financial Markets”

As for inflation, the ECB already raised interest rates last week. The Federal Reserve’s meeting is scheduled for this Wednesday. “Following the slight upside surprise in core inflation in the latest inflation figures released on Friday, a rate hike by the Fed is priced in at about 87 percent,” reports Leon Ferdinand Bost of Metzler. “We do not believe the committee can take a stance diametrically opposed to the financial markets on Wednesday.” Two further rate hikes are priced in through March 2027.

Key Economic Data

Tuesday, September 15

4:00 a.m. China: Retail Sales/Industrial Production for August. According to DekaBank, the rise in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) points to a resurgence in industrial production.

Wednesday, September 16

2:30 p.m. U.S.: August retail sales. Following the weak figures from the previous month, Commerzbank expects a significant increase.

8:00 p.m. U.S.: Federal Reserve decision. Helaba expects an interest rate hike, even though Fed officials are reportedly under pressure from the White House to hold rates steady. Inflation rates are high, and the labor market is in solid shape.

Thursday, September 17

1:00 p.m. United Kingdom: Bank of England interest rate decision. DekaBank believes the Bank of England will likely leave its key interest rate at 3.75 percent, as no serious second-round effects are apparent in wage growth or inflation expectations.

Friday, September 18

Major expiration date for options and futures. On the Eurex futures exchange, futures and options contracts on the DAX, as well as futures and options on individual stocks, will expire. Contracts are also expiring internationally, which could lead to high trading volumes and sharply fluctuating prices worldwide.

Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Following the rate hike in June, DekaBank generally expects another increase in the key interest rate. The rationale is the weak yen, which could lead to additional domestic price pressure. Furthermore, wage growth has recently risen to over 4 percent.

by: Anna-Maria Borse, September 14, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG