Weekly Outlook: "Failed Iran Talks Weigh on Markets"

The war in Iran remains a dominant issue, and signs point once again toward escalation. It is said that longer-term consequences for inflation and the global economy are becoming increasingly likely.

April 13, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). With the collapse of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, market sentiment has taken a nosedive. The price of oil has risen sharply again, with a barrel of Brent crude trading at $102 on Monday morning.

“The markets fluctuated last week between hopes for peace and disillusionment,” explains Ulrich Wortberg of Helaba. This is likely to remain the case in the coming days. However, with every passing week without a significant and sustained drop in energy prices, the risk of economic damage increases. Reports of production cuts are already emerging from Asia. These increase the risk of disruptions to global supply chains, in addition to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  

Profits given back

The DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 23,503 points on Monday morning, down from 23,804 at Friday’s close. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is also trading lower. U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Friday following a strong week. The price of gold has recently risen again, with a troy ounce currently costing $4,728. After a slight recovery, Bitcoin is now trading at $71,000 again; its all-time high was nearly $126,000.

“Growing willingness to sell”

“In the new trading week, the renewed rise in oil prices is likely to give market participants pause,” notes Berndt Fernow of LBBW. Even before the collapse of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, the Sentix survey had revealed a significant deterioration in the medium-term stock market outlook. “Perceptions of the crisis appear to be shifting toward more persistent consequences, and from a sentiment perspective, this signals a growing willingness to sell.”

First-quarter earnings reports

On the data front, the calendar is light this week. In the U.S., however, the first companies are set to report their first-quarter results, particularly banks. In Europe, heavyweight ASML will kick off earnings season on Wednesday, as DekaBank explains. “The consensus expects earnings growth of around 13 percent for the S&P 500,” it says. For the Stoxx 600 and DAX, consensus forecasts are significantly lower at around 6 percent and 2 percent, respectively. Due to the war in Iran, the outlook is likely to be in the spotlight even more than usual.

Key Economic Data

Wednesday, April 15

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: February industrial production. Helaba expects a slight decline of 0.2 percent compared to January, following a 1.5 percent drop the previous month. However, the figures would only provide insight into the trend prior to the Iran conflict.

Thursday, April 16

4:00 a.m. China: First-quarter GDP. According to Commerzbank, China’s economy is expected to have grown by 4.6 percent in the first quarter, supported by robust exports and accelerated public investment.

4:00 a.m. China: March retail sales/industrial production.

1:30 p.m. Eurozone: Minutes of the ECB meeting on March 19. According to DekaBank, the summary is expected to include an extensive discussion of the effects of the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices on inflation in the eurozone.

3:15 p.m. U.S.: Industrial production for March. According to Helaba, no growth is expected compared to February; the previous month saw a slight increase of 0.2 percent.