Weekly Outlook: “Don’t Panic Despite Autumn Fluctuations”

High bond yields are, on the one hand, competition for stocks, but on the other hand, they are also a warning sign. Nevertheless, hardly anyone expects a stock market crash—quite the contrary. Strong corporate earnings are providing support, they say.

October 5, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The Nasdaq 100 tech index reached a new all-time high on Friday, while the DAX remains about 5 percent below its record high. “The combination of rising energy prices and the sharp jump in bond yields is amplifying economic risks, weighing on earnings growth in some cases, and putting pressure on valuation levels,” explains DekaBank analyst Joachim Schallmayer.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report provided some relief. “The U.S. jobs report for September was disappointing across the board,” comments LBBW analyst Thomas Meißner. “The Fed is likely to tighten the policy rate once again soon, but more cautiously than some had expected.”

The DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 25,308 points on Monday morning, down from 25,274 on Friday evening and 26,659—its all-time high—at the end of August. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is also currently about 5 percent below its recent record high. U.S. stock markets closed higher on Friday. The performance of Bitcoin remains notable: Bitcoin reached $87,000 on Friday, but by Monday morning, it had fallen slightly to $85,747.

“Earnings Growth at U.S. Tech Companies Is More Than Robust”

Robert Halver of Baader Bank points out that real bond yields are “only modestly in positive territory.” “As such, they do not pose a major threat to asset classes rooted in the real economy, such as stocks and precious metals,” he says. He is not concerned about stock valuations. “Earnings growth at U.S. tech companies is more than robust.” In Germany, incidentally, the outlook is brightening, thanks to higher public investment and stronger export demand. The base scenario remains positive. “If the geopolitical situation gradually stabilizes, concerns about interest rates and monetary policy remain limited, and the global economic recovery provides additional momentum, there’s no need to panic on the stock markets this fall, despite fluctuations.”

“Positive Seasonality Ahead”

Andreas Hürkamp of Commerzbank also expects that, following a weak September, the DAX will face headwinds in October—including rising yields, geopolitical uncertainties, and transatlantic turbulence as the U.S. midterm elections approach. Yet he, too, remains confident: “After all, the steady upward trend in analysts’ expectations for DAX corporate earnings is helping, and this is likely to become the dominant factor in the medium term.”
Deka analyst Schallmayer shares a similar view. “Fundamentally, the combination of strong earnings growth, moderate valuations, and soon-to-be-positive seasonality should support the DAX.” DekaBank forecasts the DAX at 27,000 points in three months and 28,000 points in six months. 

First U.S. Quarterly Earnings

There’s news regarding one of this year’s most exciting IPOs: that of AI giant Anthropic. Starting November 9, Anthropic plans to formally begin marketing its shares to investors, as reported by the Bloomberg news agency. Trading in the shares could thus begin before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on November 26.

There are hardly any economic indicators on the horizon for the coming week. However, the U.S. earnings season kicks off with PepsiCo, as reported by DekaBank. Next week, it will be the turn of the major U.S. banks and ASML—Europe’s most valuable company.

Key Economic and Business Data

Tuesday, October 6

Unscheduled SDAX Adjustment Takes Effect: Wüstenrot & Württembergische AG is being delisted from the SDAX because it does not meet the requirement for “listing on the regulated market of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.” SGL Carbon will be added to the SDAX in its place.

8:00 a.m. Germany: August industrial orders. Commerzbank expects the improved sentiment to be confirmed by a more positive trend in “hard” data.

Wednesday, October 7

8:00 a.m. Germany: August industrial production. Commerzbank believes production likely rose, thereby confirming the improved sentiment indicators seen in recent months. This increases the likelihood that the German economy also grew in the third quarter.

8:00 p.m. U.S.: Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting.