Weekly Outlook: “DAX Shows New Mid-Term Prospects”

Yields as a Major Risk Factor

In addition to the geopolitical situation, rising yields remain a key issue. From LBBW’s perspective, the crisis in the Persian Gulf continues to take its toll on economies through energy prices, raw materials, and transportation costs. Uwe Streich sees this as a reason why central banks are likely to maintain a restrictive stance. In this context, he describes the cost of capital as the “Achilles’ heel of the AI boom,” which is considered the driving force behind the ongoing upswing in the stock markets. The construction of ever-larger data centers requires significant investment and, increasingly, capital market financing. Rising interest rates raise the breakeven point for operators and alter investors’ valuation models. This particularly affects companies whose expected earnings lie far in the future.

DAX Companies with Solid Balance Sheets

In contrast, the earnings season in Germany turned out to be less weak than feared, in LBBW’s view. Fernow points out that the positive and negative outlooks of DAX companies were roughly balanced. The quarterly figures only began to reflect the new problems to a limited extent. Among other things, he views statements from Infineon, the chemical industry, several automakers, and the capital goods sector as positive. Fernow sees this as an indication of a certain resilience among DAX companies. In the previous earnings season, there had been even more negative outlooks. 

The technical picture is convincing

From a technical analysis perspective, the DAX’s all-time high of 25,507 points is “within reach” this week, as Marcel Mußler of Mußler Briefe wrote yesterday at noon. Furthermore, according to his analysis, “entirely new medium-term prospects” are now emerging, even if the U.S. markets “pull ahead.” The technical analyst points to a new upward trend channel that currently runs at 26,430 points and is expected to rise further. Ralf Umlauf of Helaba is also optimistic about the DAX: “The indicators do not preclude further price gains; the all-time high is within reach.” Mußler also points to the small-cap index SDAX (DE0009653386), which has already hit new record highs. The price barometer is confirming itself “as the frontrunner in the DAX family, which is now whetting the appetite for more.”

Important economic and business dates for the week

Tuesday, May 26

4:00 p.m. U.S.: Consumer confidence. Deutsche Bank expects a decline from 92.8 to 91.9 points. Commerzbank forecasts 91.5 points, while LBBW anticipates around 90 points. LBBW cites higher energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the war in Iran as negative factors.

Thursday, May 28

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Economic Sentiment. LBBW anticipates a slight decline in economic confidence, citing rising financing costs, subdued industrial activity, and a hesitant recovery in the services sector. Deka sees sentiment weighed down by high energy prices, supply chain issues, and uncertainty.

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Durable goods orders. The consensus forecast is for a 2.5 percent increase from the previous month. Deutsche Bank is significantly more cautious at 0.1 percent, while LBBW and Deka expect 3.0 percent. Deka notes that civilian aircraft manufacturing is likely to provide support.

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank expect the core rate—excluding food and energy—to rise by 0.3 percent month-over-month. Commerzbank notes that this would correspond to an annual rate of 3.3 percent, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target; Deka refers to this as the fifth consecutive undesirably high price increase.

5:30 p.m. Eurozone: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. LBBW expects indications regarding the future course of monetary policy in the eurozone. The markets are likely to pay particular attention to signals regarding possible interest rate cuts or a longer pause.

Friday, May 29

2:00 p.m. Germany: Inflation data. Commerzbank and LBBW expect the annual rate of the national consumer price index to decline to 2.7 percent, Deutsche Bank to 2.82 percent, while Deka expects it to remain unchanged at 2.9 percent. Most economists point to dampening effects from lower energy prices and the fuel rebate.

 

By Thomas Koch, Mai 26, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG