Weekly Outlook: “Crises? What crises?”

There is hardly any sign of this on the stock markets. The DAX closed at 24,297 points on Thursday ahead of the long weekend; during its March low, it had fallen below 22,000 points. On the U.S. stock exchanges, which opened on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to new all-time highs once again, this time driven by strong earnings from Apple. “Strong corporate earnings growth, combined with positive earnings revisions, supported the U.S. stock markets,” explains Ulrich Kater of DekaBank.

“Pre-war oil prices not expected until late 2027”

On Monday morning, the DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 24,267 points. The oil price rose significantly again on Friday and currently remains at $107 per barrel of Brent. The Bitcoin recovery is striking: the price has just risen back above $80,000, the highest level since late January.  

Moritz Kraemer of LBBW warns against the belief that peace in Iran would automatically and quickly cause gas and oil prices to fall. “The consequences of the war will be with us for much longer,” explains the chief economist. No one knows what U.S. President Trump has planned next or whether Iran will be able to relinquish the strategic asset of the Strait of Hormuz. “The lack of rational predictability on the part of both adversaries makes any peace fragile.” But even regardless of that, the economic consequences of the war would persist for a long time due to the damage to production facilities and offshore mines. “We consider it likely that pre-war oil prices will not be reached again until around the end of 2027, even assuming the blockade is lifted as early as May.”

“U.S. Tech Sector Remains Highly Attractive”

For Jens Herdack of Weber Bank, it makes perfect sense from a fundamental perspective that new all-time highs have been reached in the U.S. but not in Europe. “If you compare earnings expectations on both sides of the Atlantic, a significant gap continues to widen,” he notes. So far, 20 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings based on market capitalization, with clearly positive growth across all sectors. Herdack is also confident about the rest of the earnings season. “In our view, the technology sector remains very attractive,” he says—especially since valuations there have actually declined recently and are now much closer to those of the broader market.

On the calendar front, things are relatively quiet this week following last week’s numerous central bank meetings and key data releases. In Europe and Germany, many companies continue to report, including Infineon, BMW, and Rheinmetall.

Key Economic and Business Data

Monday, May 4

10:30 a.m. Germany: sentix Investor Confidence Index for May.

Thursday, May 7

8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial New Orders for March. Commerzbank believes that the war in Iran appears to have had little impact on German industrial activity in March. It expects order intake to increase compared to the previous month.

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: March retail sales. Helaba expects a 1 percent decline compared to the previous month.

Friday, May 8

2:30 p.m. U.S.: April unemployment figures. According to DekaBank, the U.S. labor market report for March made an extremely strong impression at first glance—particularly regarding employment trends. However, separate calculations showed that the record-warm March was responsible for this. As a result, there is a risk of a negative rebound effect in April.

By Anna-Maria Borse, May 4, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG