Weekly Outlook: “Corporate Earnings and the AI Boom Provide Support”

While the bond markets are sending warning signals, the stock markets are holding steady near their all-time highs. This week, all eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings, the Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference—and the Iran-U.S. conflict.

August 24, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). With little prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, high oil prices, and sharply rising interest rates, the recent stock market rally has hit a snag. “Due to high yields on government bonds and the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran that appear to be at an impasse, the stock markets have taken a breather,” explains Martin Hartmann of Commerzbank. “The geopolitical environment does not look positive,” agrees Ulf Kraus of Helaba. While there is no immediate escalation, the impression has now taken hold that global political instability is becoming a permanent state of affairs.

The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level since 2007 last week. This was triggered by growing inflation fears and massive government debt. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to double the planned purchases of longer-term government bonds did little to ease the situation. Yields also rose significantly in Europe and Asia. Yields on 10-year and 30-year German government bonds climbed to their highest levels since 2011.

In Rally Mode: Gold and Bitcoin

The DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 26,106 points on Monday morning, down from 26,126 at Friday’s close and 26,562—its most recent all-time high in mid-August. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is also trading slightly below its record high. U.S. stock markets ended a weak week on Friday with modest gains.

The trend in the price of gold remains striking, with a sharp rise from around 4,000 to the current 4,650 U.S. dollars per troy ounce. In addition, after a long period of sideways movement around $64,000, Bitcoin has risen to $77,000. One reason: hopes for political tailwinds following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and representatives of the crypto industry.

“The Economy Remains Solid”

Commerzbank analyst Hartmann expects the lull to continue into the new week. “In the medium term, we expect stock prices to rise again, as corporate earnings are likely to continue growing strongly thanks to robust global economic growth and an ‘AI-driven economic boom.’”

Leon Ferdinand Bost of Metzler notes a slight increase in the overall Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the eurozone. “Looking at the sectors, it was primarily the manufacturing PMI that rose significantly from 51.9 to 52.8,” he adds. Overall, the eurozone economy has thus remained solid so far in the third quarter. In the U.S., the purchasing managers’ indices also painted a picture of economic strength.

Focus on Nvidia and Jackson Hole

Although earnings season is more or less over, there is still one highlight left: Nvidia will report its earnings on Wednesday, which are seen as an indicator of the strength of the investment boom in the AI sector.

Also important this week: the central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The monetary policy symposium begins Thursday evening, followed Friday by the highly anticipated opening remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Key Economic and Business Data

Tuesday, August 25

10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for August. According to DekaBank, the latest surveys of financial market analysts show encouraging results: The economic situation, which had been poor until now, is gradually being viewed more positively, and economic expectations are rising.

Wednesday, August 26

2:30 p.m. U.S.: July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator. DekaBank estimates that the trend in this deflator—which is important to the Federal Reserve—will be a key factor in the Fed’s next policy decision. It expects the deflator, excluding food and energy, to have risen by 0.2 percent in July compared with the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2 percent.

Thursday, August 27

Central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, U.S. (through August 29).