Weekly Outlook: “A Setback for the AI Rally”

Following the setback for U.S. tech stocks, attention this week is turning to the sustainability of the AI boom. With SpaceX set to go public, this could also have implications for index funds and established heavyweights.

June 8, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Stock markets are starting the new week in negative territory. After U.S. indices fell sharply on Friday, the DAX (DE0008469008) is trading at 24,450 points this morning. Last week, the leading German index closed at 24,759 points after a 1.4 percent decline. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) fell 0.5 percent to 622.66 points. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 posted weekly declines of 2.6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

The stock market is now debating whether the setback in the technology sector was merely a brief interruption in the AI-driven rally or the beginning of a more significant correction. One negative factor was the disappointing reception of chipmaker Broadcom’s revenue forecast last Wednesday. Prior to that, U.S. indices had been hitting new all-time highs. Robert Rethfeld of Wellenreiter-Invest calls Friday a “day of liquidation across all asset classes,” as bonds, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even commodities fell. However, the expert does not see this behavior as a new trend, but rather as a “very short-term phenomenon.”

“Significantly Increased Capital Requirements in the Short Term”

Rethfeld attributes the sell-off to the extremely optimistic positioning of global fund managers—who are heavily overweight in equities and commodities—as well as to “temporarily high capital requirements among investors.” “When there is a capital requirement of up to $250 billion within just a few trading days, the need to liquidate existing positions increases significantly,” he explains, citing SpaceX’s IPO, Alphabet’s “mammoth capital raise” of nearly $85 billion, and the capital needs announced by Meta, which he estimates “could be on a similar scale to Alphabet’s.”

Meanwhile, Berndt Fernow of LBBW describes a market in which the AI boom has continued to spread. Following Nvidia, chip manufacturers and equipment suppliers were initially in demand, followed later by memory manufacturers, power semiconductors, network technology, server providers, power supplies, and specialty chemicals. Against this backdrop, the analyst warns that the rising index levels tell only half the story. The majority of individual stocks have underperformed the major stock indices.

The Impact of SpaceX's IPO

SpaceX's initial public offering, scheduled for this coming Friday, could serve as a major stress test for the stock markets. Clemens Freigang of LBBW describes it as a record-breaking IPO and cites an expected offering volume of $74.4 billion. Based on the set offering price of $135, the space company’s valuation stands at $1.77 trillion. This would make the company the largest IPO to date, surpassing Saudi Aramco.

For the stock markets, the IPO is significant not only because of the size of the offering. Analysts at DZ Bank point out that newly listed stocks can trigger buying by index funds following their inclusion in an index. MSCI can include large IPOs after just ten trading days, while the S&P 500 maintains a twelve-month waiting period. With a low free float, additional demand meets limited supply. At the same time, index funds would have to sell other stocks to finance the new positions. DZ Bank therefore sees increased volatility around such inclusion dates.

Jens Ehrhardt of Finanzwoche also views the upcoming initial public offerings as a potential drag on the market. In addition to SpaceX, he mentions the AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI. The balance between supply and demand for stocks is deteriorating, though Ehrhardt speaks of a balance rather than an oversupply.

Geopolitics and Interest Rate Decision

Against this backdrop, the Iran conflict could temporarily take a back seat on the stock markets as long as there is no relevant news on the matter. In addition, the focus is likely to be on Thursday’s ECB meeting. Analysts and economists consider a 25-basis-point interest rate hike to be all but certain. 

Technical Analysis Points to Further Correction Risks

From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook has dimmed due to the sharp price decline at the end of the week. “A new market phase begins on Friday,” explains Marcel Mußler regarding the major U.S. indices. The technical analyst speaks of an impending “consolidation period.” A more severe slump is unlikely, but neither is a quick revival of the upward rally. For the DAX, it is important in the current environment to defend the upward trend, which currently stands at 24,570 points. If this fails, the index would “immediately face a tempting potential for further correction.” According to Mußler, the next support zone would only be found at the two support levels of 23,715 and 23,797 points.

Key Economic and Business Events of the Week

Monday, June 8

8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial orders. Following the significant increase in March, the April data should show whether the rise was primarily due to one-off effects. Helaba expects a 1.0 percent decline compared to the previous month, while LBBW anticipates a drop of as much as 3.5 percent.

Tuesday, June 9

8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial production. Like March, April is likely to have been a difficult month for industry. Deka points out that German industrial production has fallen three times since December. Helaba expects a 0.5 percent decline compared to the previous month, while Nord/LB forecasts a 1.5 percent increase.

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Trade balance. The deficit is likely to have remained high in April. Helaba expects a deficit of $55.0 billion; the consensus is $55.5 billion, following $60.3 billion in March.

4:00 p.m. U.S.: Existing Home Sales. The U.S. housing market remains a barometer for the impact of high financing costs. The consensus forecast is for an annualized sales figure of 4.08 million homes, following 4.02 million in April.

Wednesday, June 10

2:30 p.m. U.S.: Inflation data. Consumer prices are expected to have risen significantly again in May. The consensus forecast for overall inflation is 0.5 percent month-over-month, following 0.6 percent in April. The core rate, excluding energy and food, is expected to be 0.3 percent. Deka points to possible price increases for goods other than energy and food, including used cars.

Thursday, June 11

2:15 p.m. Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision. A 25-basis-point hike in key interest rates is considered likely. For the deposit rate, the consensus is 2.25 percent, up from 2.00 percent; for the main refinancing rate, it is 2.40 percent, up from 2.15 percent. Deka economists expect the ECB to continue making decisions “on a meeting-by-meeting basis” for the time being due to the high level of uncertainty.

Friday, June 12

4:00 p.m. U.S.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. U.S. consumer sentiment is expected to have improved in June. The consensus is 46.0 points, up from 44.8 points in May. Deutsche Bank even expects 48.5 points and additionally highlights the importance of inflation expectations in the survey.

U.S.: SpaceX’s expected stock market debut. The aerospace company’s initial listing on the Nasdaq is scheduled for the last day of this week. Analysts point to a potential valuation of $1.77 trillion. This would make it the largest initial public offering in history.