Outlook for 2026: “Opportunities beyond the US-dominated mainstream”

Will 2026 be another good year for the stock market? The forecasts are certainly not bad. What is striking is that many still see room for improvement in the European markets and emerging economies. There is more skepticism regarding US tech stocks.

5 January 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The DAX (<DE00084690082025>) has gained around 23 percent – and on the second trading day of the new year, the index is even approaching its all-time high of 24,771 points again at 24,640 points on Monday morning. Despite the difficult situation, the forecasts for 2026 remain mostly positive: The 29 financial institutions surveyed in the traditional FAZ year-end survey expect the DAX to average just under 26,000 points by the end of the year – an increase of 6 percent. 
DZ Bank is particularly confident, forecasting the DAX to reach 27,500 points by the end of 2026. Earnings growth will remain the most important driver of the stock markets this year. “Stable macroeconomic conditions, structural investment programs, and increasing economic momentum are creating a favorable environment,” explains Birgit Henseler.

Berenberg: “Regional diversifiers are interesting”

Berenberg Bank is also optimistic, especially for stocks from Europe and emerging markets. These are valued more favorably than US stocks and their own history. “Earnings revisions were also significantly weaker in Europe than in the US,” it says. The resulting lower expectations make both emerging market and European stock markets interesting as “regional diversifiers” in 2026. Added to this are regional growth drivers such as the economic stimulus package in Germany, the peace negotiations in Ukraine, Beijing's new five-year plan, and the increasingly dominant role of Asian economies in the AI boom.

Helaba: “A lot of positive developments already anticipated”

Helaba expects only a sideways movement. “Although equities remain the most interesting asset class for structural reasons, the potential for 2026 is limited from a cyclical perspective,” notes Helaba analyst Markus Reinwand. Due to the rise in prices, which was largely driven by valuation expansion, the DAX and Euro Stoxx (EU0009658145) have already anticipated a great deal of positive developments – significantly more than can be justified by the tentative recovery in leading economic indicators. “For prices to rise further, earnings expectations must be exceeded,” he emphasizes. At the end of the year, the bank sees the DAX at around 25,000 points.

LBBW: “Opportunities beyond the US-dominated mainstream”

“After three years of bull markets, global stock markets are rather highly valued,” agrees Berndt Fernow of LBBW. A certain complacency seems to have spread among investors. “But this is precisely where the danger for the markets lies, because risks do not disappear by ignoring them.” US tariff policy is having a creeping inflationary effect, keeping interest rates high and slowing down the economy both in the US and in export-oriented countries such as Germany.

The historically unique concentration of market capitalization on a few AI beneficiaries has also created a considerable cluster risk. "Declining profit momentum is likely to put pressure on the valuations of US stock market stars. “ LBBW expects a prolonged phase of risk aversion in 2026, with levels well below current ones. However, opportunities do exist outside the US-dominated mainstream. ”Asian and European stocks are significantly cheaper than American ones. Stocks with strong sustainable dividends deserve attention, as do second-tier stocks."

In the first full week of trading in the new year, there are already some “data bombshells” on the horizon, as Commerzbank puts it, with a view to US unemployment figures and inflation in the eurozone.