Market sentiment: “The DAX and Market Sentiment Are Both on a Roller Coaster Ride”

March 25, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Bad news from the war in Iran, coupled with weak demand at the lower end of the DAX, has led to a massive sell-off and price declines of more than 2,000 DAX points at times since our last sentiment survey. Following an ultimatum from U.S. President Donald Trump directed at the Iranian government, there was then a turnaround last Monday. A brief message from Trump regarding an extension of that same ultimatum and talk of possible negotiations with Iran transformed the previously almost hopeless sentiment into a sort of mini-euphoria within a quarter of an hour: The stock market barometer temporarily shot up by around 6 percent, so that at the close of the sentiment week, after a rollercoaster ride, we can “only” report a loss of 3.6 percent.

Sentiment among the institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon whom we surveyed has deteriorated only slightly compared to the previous week, as our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index fell by just 6 points to a new level of +19. It is immediately apparent that the bulls—which, given the price action since last Wednesday, may seem surprising at first glance—have shrunk by just 3 percentage points; however, these positions are now found among the bears at the end of the reporting week. We assume, however, that sentiment among institutional investors must have been extremely poor over the weekend (as suggested by the Sentix survey, for example).

Retail investors are relatively pessimistic

Among retail investors, sentiment has also deteriorated compared to the previous week. The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index in this panel has fallen by 13 points to a new level of +12. The bear camp has grown by 8 percentage points, with just over 60 percent of investors coming directly from the bull camp—the rest consists of previously neutral investors. Incidentally, in the subgroup of retail investors whom we do not survey via social media, the Sentiment Index has deteriorated by 10 points to a new level of +7.

While today’s survey reveals a sentiment gap between institutional and retail investors, it is not very wide. What stands out most is that, when viewed in relative terms over three and six months, sentiment among retail investors is now even slightly negative. In contrast, from this perspective, sentiment among institutional investors remains slightly positive, and the absolute index level of +25—measured against the latest news—may be justified. However, it is reasonable to assume that, given the wide trading range of 8.8 percent and the likely drop in sentiment heading into the weekend, the bulls had to pull the emergency brake in some places, leading to significant stock sell-offs.

No Vows of Loyalty

From this perspective, the current bullish positions are likely to have been newly opened in many cases as a result of Monday’s sharp rally. We assume that these positions will only hold if the DAX quickly resumes its upward trend. Consequently, we expect profit-taking in the 23,600–23,650 range, which will naturally stand in the way of a stronger upward move by the DAX at first. Furthermore, the new optimists will quickly exit their positions in the event of renewed weakness, as investors are unlikely to want to sit on the sidelines a second time given the fragile downside, should the DAX move more strongly toward Monday’s lows (i.e., below 22,000).

From a sentiment perspective, the situation for the DAX has thus hardly improved compared to last week. This situation is likely to turn positive only if the news flow from the Middle East—and above all from the U.S. president—should stabilize sustainably. 

by Joachim Goldberg

March 25, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse

The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line.

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