Cryptocurrencies: “Things will remain interesting in 2026”

After experiencing significant price fluctuations, cryptocurrencies ultimately recorded losses in value over the past year. Nevertheless, demand for crypto ETNs remained very high. The forecasts for 2026 leave room for surprises – in both directions.

January 8, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse).The 2025 stock market year brought moderate losses for the major cryptocurrencies overall. Bitcoin lost 6 percent of its value, Ethereum fell 11 percent, and Solana lost 34 percent. In euros, the price declines were even more pronounced, ranging from minus 17 to 42 percent. In the 24 months prior, however, Bitcoin had increased almost sixfold and Ethereum had nearly tripled. Solana's price had even risen by a total of around 1,800 percent in 2023 and 2024.

Volatility in 2025 was once again significantly higher than in other asset classes. After a somewhat weak start to the quarter, cryptocurrency prices rose sharply into the fall. Bitcoin even reached a new all-time high of over $126,000 in October before undergoing another sharp correction toward the end of the year. The price subsequently reached a low of around $80,000. The picture was similar for other currencies. Ethereum narrowly missed the $5,000 mark with its new record in August and subsequently fell back to just over $2,600.

Ethereum benefits more than last year

Despite the stalled rally, the past year was once again characterized by strong institutional demand. According to Coinshares, global inflows for investment products in the digital asset sector were just below the record high of $48.7 billion reached in 2024, at $47.2 billion. The funds flowed predominantly into Bitcoin (57 percent) and Ethereum (27 percent) products. In the previous year, however, the focus on Bitcoin assets was even greater, accounting for 86 percent of the total.

Looking back, Dovile Silenskyte of WisdomTree sees “signs of selective rebalancing of the portfolios of some large institutional investors, who have increased their allocations to Ethereum ETNs relative to Bitcoin ETNs,” particularly in the summer months. Inflows into physically backed Ethereum ETNs were “remarkable” throughout the year, especially in Europe.

Bitcoin ETNs dominate stock exchange trading

Bitcoin remained the clear number one in crypto ETN trading on the German stock exchange in 2025. The world's largest cryptocurrency was represented six times among the ten most frequently traded products. Bitwise Physical Bitcoin (DE000A27Z304) recorded the highest turnover. However, data from crypto ETN issuer Bitwise shows net outflows for this ETN across Europe. The largest inflows were recorded by the Bitcoin ETNs from iShares (XS2940466316) and CoinShares (GB00BLD4ZL17), which are also very actively traded on Xetra.

The remaining four places in the top 10 in terms of turnover were taken last year by 21Shares Solana Staking (CH1114873776), 21Shares XRP (CH0454664043) and the Ethereum ETNs from VanEck (DE000A3GPSP7) and 21Shares (CH0454664027).

Investors are betting on rising prices

In Vontobel's derivatives trading, David Hartmann looks back on a “particularly turbulent trading year in 2025” in the cryptocurrency segment. As in previous years, investor interest focused on Bitcoin, the “original cryptocurrency.” “Around two-thirds of all transactions were in certificates with Bitcoin as the underlying asset, followed by Ethereum and Solana.”

Measured by the number of trades executed, the currently triple-leveraged Mini Future Long on the Bitcoin Future (DE000VC1HCL6) became the most traded product in this area. Overall, demand for long structures clearly outweighed demand for short structures: “In the leverage segment, only about one in ten trades related to a short position.” In the investment product segment, the derivatives expert once again anticipates high demand for the open-end participation certificate on BTC/USD (DE000VQ63TC1) in 2025.

What could be significant in 2026

The forecasts for 2026, which has started positively from the perspective of crypto bulls, vary widely, as is usual for this asset class. Important influencing factors could include the development of US key interest rates, the upcoming midterm elections in the US, the deregulation promised by US President Donald Trump, and the behavior of institutional investors. Or something that no one is thinking about today.

After a “year of consolidation,” André Dragosch of Bitwise sees the major cryptocurrencies as undervalued, creating an “asymmetrically attractive starting position for 2026.” “With improved macroeconomic conditions, increasing institutional penetration, and structural supply bottlenecks, the crypto market appears well positioned for a renewed, fundamentally driven upward phase.”

Key chart levels in focus

Maximiliaan Michielsen of 21Shares sees Bitcoin in a constructive but delicate position in the short term, given the technical resistance between $95,000 and $100,000: “A decisive break above resistance would likely accelerate momentum, while a decline toward the $80,000 mark would be accompanied by consolidation rather than a trend reversal, assuming this important support holds.”

Meanwhile, the strategists' medium-term assessment remains positive: “Overall, Bitcoin is entering 2026 as a mature macro asset that is more influenced by capital flows, liquidity, and global positioning, and has a constructive path ahead if current trends continue.”

Great opportunities due to sustained high demand?

Matthew Kimmell of CoinShares expresses concrete price targets, seeing high potential for Bitcoin in 2026, “even if the path upward is not expected to be linear.” From a fundamental perspective, he believes the lower valuation limit is around $140,000 by the end of the year. In a favorable scenario, Bitcoin could even reach price levels of around $240,000. Kimmell bases his assumptions on a further increase in global Bitcoin ownership and savings-driven inflows, which could create sustainable demand.

Correction risks due to the end of the halving cycle?

However, there are also significantly more critical voices. Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity fears a new bear market in 2026 because Bitcoin may have completed another four-year halving cycle in terms of both price and time. In his view, the price is likely to find support between $65,000 and $75,000.
Bank of America warns of a general flight from highly speculative assets. Since cryptocurrencies have recently been strongly correlated with tech stocks, there is a risk in 2026 that Bitcoin will also be disproportionately affected if the AI euphoria cools down. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the new year, the financial institution officially allowed its asset managers to recommend cryptocurrencies as part of client portfolios (up to a 4 percent share) for the first time.