Gold: Moderate Recovery

Gold prices are stabilizing following the recent pullback, thanks to easing geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar—while Michael Blumenroth sees potential for a short-term recovery, he urges caution given the continuing uncertainty in the broader economic environment.

June 17, 2026. FRANKFURT (Xetra-Gold). After having to deliver bad news to fans of the yellow metal last week, things are looking a bit better this week—much like the change in the weather, with last week’s autumn rains giving way to midsummer temperatures once again. I’m actually not “on duty” this week—for those who are curious, I recommend the “Commodities Talk” with Manuel Koch, which should be available at the same time these lines are published. That’s where we’ll shed light on this mystery. I hope I’ve built the suspense to a fever pitch. But when it comes to the noblest of all metals, I’m of course happy to put pen to paper—even if, admittedly, I’m doing so unusually on a Tuesday afternoon.

Gold Price Falls to Annual Low

Last Thursday morning, the price of gold had fallen to about $4,024 per ounce, its lowest level since the beginning of the year. The uncertain situation in the Middle East, rising inflation rates, central banks’ shift toward raising key interest rates, and the exodus of speculative investors from gold positions had put the yellow metal under heavy pressure. However, as expected, the $4,000 per ounce level proved to be a strong support level. No one dared to bet on a break below this mark, so the gold price was able to rebound by about $200 per ounce from its lows on the very same day.

Interest Rate Moves and Geopolitical Signals

This was despite the fact that the ECB had raised key interest rates that afternoon—a move that had, however, already been fully priced into the markets in advance. After U.S. President Trump announced via social media on Sunday evening—shortly after the German national soccer team’s first match at the World Cup—that a so-called “Memorandum of Understanding” between the U.S. and Iran was to be signed this Friday, which is said to include, among other things, a further 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which has been blocked since late February— there were strong market reactions on Monday.  

Reactions in Commodity and Foreign Exchange Markets

Oil prices fell noticeably, inflation expectations were revised downward, as were the expectations for central bank interest rate hikes priced into the interest rate futures markets. The U.S. dollar also weakened moderately, which likewise supported gold prices.

Gold Price in U.S. Dollars Over the Course of the Week

In numerical terms, this means that gold prices opened at around $4,095 per ounce on Thursday morning of last week during the European trading session. By the end of the day, the precious metal was already trading above $4,200 per ounce again, and closed out the week at $4,220 on Friday. On Monday, gold prices began the new week at around 4,280 and traded at a daily high of about 4,369. As of Tuesday at 3:30 p.m., when this article was written, gold is trading slightly lower at around 4,340 US$ per ounce.

Xetra Gold Also Rises

The Xetra Gold price also rose: During regular trading hours, it rose from €114 per gram last Thursday morning to €117.50 by Friday evening. Here, too, the price surged sharply right at the start of trading on Monday, reaching an intraday high of 120.90 in the afternoon. This Tuesday afternoon, the price is trading slightly lower at around 120.20 per gram.

Caution Despite Positive Signs

I don’t want to be a killjoy, but to be perfectly honest, with the Brent price currently at $80 per barrel, I would have expected a stronger euro against the U.S. dollar and slightly higher gold prices than we’re seeing now. My personal guess is that the markets are not yet fully pricing in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a further, sustained, and lasting normalization of the geopolitical situation. Better safe than sorry. And if even Spain can’t beat Cape Verde in the World Cup, who’s to say that the de-escalation in the Middle East is now 100 percent a done deal? Moreover, the central banks of the U.S. and the U.K., among others, are set to meet this week—which I’ll report on next week.

I wish all readers a few exciting days of soccer and, given the forecast temperatures, a perfectly functioning refrigerator.