Gold: “At least some temporary relief”

Commodities analyst Michael Blumenroth summarizes the highly volatile week in the oil market and its impact on other markets, particularly gold.

Ceasefire and Possible Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

April 9, 2026. FRANKFURT (Xetra-Gold). Shortly before the ultimatum expired, a two-week ceasefire was agreed upon with Pakistan acting as mediator. This agreement is specifically intended to include the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn would enable the export of many raw materials (crude oil, natural gas, fertilizers, helium, etc.). The complete halt of these exports had triggered the sharp movements in the financial markets in recent weeks: Rising prices for oil and natural gas led to higher yields, increased expectations of interest rate hikes by central banks, a stronger U.S. dollar, and thus strong headwinds for gold prices.

Economic data remain in the background

Economic data—such as the March U.S. labor market figures released on Good Friday—currently continue to play only a secondary role in terms of price movements in the financial markets.

Market Reactions to the Ceasefire

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, there was a sharp reversal compared to the trend in financial markets since the start of the war: Oil prices fell by around 15 percent, stock prices rose, government bond yields declined, the US dollar depreciated, and precious metal prices rose. However, reports began to pile up yesterday that underscore just how fragile this ceasefire agreement remains, which in turn dampened risk appetite somewhat.

Gold price trend: High volatility around Easter

After all, gold prices are currently trading slightly higher than they were a week ago today: While they stood at $4,605 per ounce on Thursday morning of last week, they briefly dipped above the $4,800 mark during Asian trading on Good Friday, only to fall back to $4,555 later that same day and end the week at $4,675—quite a bit of activity for a holiday observed in many countries. After trading more or less sideways on Monday and Tuesday, prices jumped overnight into Wednesday to $4,855. As concerns about the ceasefire’s stability resurfaced, prices retreated to $4,700, or $4,715 per ounce as of Thursday morning when this was written.

Xetra Gold: Price Movements Over the Week

The Xetra Gold price also rose: During regular trading hours, it climbed from just under €128.50 per gram at the start of trading last Thursday morning to around €130.15 on Maundy Thursday evening. On Wednesday morning, the weekly high of €132.60 was reached before prices retreated again. This morning, trading began around 9:00 a.m. at approximately €130.20 per gram.

Outlook: Focus on energy prices, yields, and inflation

News from the Middle East, along with developments in oil prices and bond yields, are likely to continue to set the tone in the financial markets. Tomorrow’s U.S. consumer price data will give us an indication of how strongly higher energy prices in the U.S. will impact inflation.

I wish all readers a relaxing weekend.