Cryptocurrencies: “The real test will come this fall”
With a rapid surge of over 25 percent in just a few days, Bitcoin took many by surprise in August. Inflows into ETPs were at their highest level in a long time. Since then, the cryptocurrency has been trading somewhat weaker, but at a higher level.
September 10, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Hardly anyone had expected this: a Bitcoin surge of over 25 percent in a short period of time. After a long period of trading sideways around $64,000, the leading cryptocurrency had risen to a peak of over $80,000 in mid-August. As of Thursday morning, it still stands at $78,000.
The reasons for the rapid price surge: first, the hoped-for political tailwind following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and representatives of the crypto industry on August 19. Added to this was the U.S. government’s announcement that it would buy back more long-term bonds—interpreted as a signal of lower interest rates. In addition, many who had bet against Bitcoin in the futures markets had to quickly cover their positions in the face of the unexpected upward movement (“short squeeze”). This further reinforced the upward trend.
However, Bitcoin is still 38 percent below its all-time high from October of last year. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Solana, also gained ground in August but are still trading well below their highs. “In general, the environment for risky assets is less favorable at the moment,” comments Dovile Silenskyte of WisdomTree. She points to renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have driven up the price of oil. “This further intensifies inflationary pressures,” she notes. Added to this are the high yields on government bonds. “Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.”
“Inflows Not Seen Since October 2025”
With net capital inflows of $6.1 billion worldwide, the market for crypto ETNs and ETFs experienced its strongest month since the beginning of the year in August, as reported by Stephen Coltman of 21shares. “The last time comparably high volumes were recorded was in October 2025.” Bitcoin trackers, in particular, were bought (US$3.6 billion), but products based on Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and crypto baskets were also purchased.
After many quiet months, trading in crypto ETNs has picked up due to the rise in prices. At Lang & Schwarz, crypto ETNs were once again “in extremely high demand” across all currencies and products, as Janis Völker reported. Ivo Orlemann of ICF Bank also reported renewed interest—albeit at a low level. Bitcoin trackers continue to dominate crypto-ETN trading on the Deutsche Börse, such as those from WisdomTree (GB00BJYDH287), iShares (XS2940466316), VanEck (DE000A28M8D0), Bitwise (DE000A27Z304), or 21shares (CH1199067674).
Ivo Orlemann
New Tax Rules
The German federal government’s plans to change the taxation of crypto gains are apparently taking shape, as reported by *Die Welt*. Starting in 2028, capital gains from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are to be taxed like stocks—that is, at a flat rate of 25 percent plus the solidarity surcharge and, where applicable, church tax. The tax exemption after one year would thus be a thing of the past. According to *Die Welt*, the reform is currently in the so-called “early coordination” phase within the federal government, so changes are still possible. The taxation of crypto-ETNs currently depends on their structure: ETNs with physical custody and a delivery option are treated like direct investments in cryptocurrencies, while crypto-ETNs without physical custody and a delivery option are treated like ETFs (and thus like stocks).
Clarity Act: “Failure Priced In”
According to Max Michielsen of 21shares, three factors will be key to Bitcoin’s performance in September: interest rate trends, trends in crypto ETF flows, and the U.S. Senate vote on September 15 on the Clarity Act, which promises increased regulation. “Since the probability of the Clarity Act passing this year is about 20 percent, according to the forecasting platform Polymarket, a failure is largely priced in,” explains Michielsen. “Passage would be a positive surprise.”
“The real test for crypto will come this fall,” says Jacob Lindberg of Valour. “The key question is whether the recent recovery is driven by sustained demand or whether it was essentially the result of a short squeeze and a temporary easing in the bond markets,” he notes. The greatest risk continues to lie with long-term U.S. interest rates. Should these rise significantly again, it would quickly dampen the recent momentum. He expects the Senate vote on the Clarity Act in mid-September to draw more attention than to actually drive price movements. “Regulation initially creates a framework; it does not yet generate demand.”
Growing into a New Role
André Dragosch of Bitwise points out the significant decline in the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, specifically the S&P 500. The 260-day correlation is now at its lowest level since 2015. “This suggests that Bitcoin is no longer being traded solely as an extension of a technology or risk trade, but is once again increasingly developing independently,” he explains. Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to its highest level since 2020. “As a result, during periods of heightened monetary and fiscal uncertainty, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a scarce, non-government store of value.” In the short term, Bitcoin remains volatile and susceptible to pullbacks. “In the medium term, however, sustained ETP inflows, its weaker correlation with stock markets, and its growing similarity to gold suggest that Bitcoin will continue to evolve into the role of a global macro asset.”
By Anna-Maria Borse, September 10, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and business editor specializing in financial markets, the stock market, and economic issues.
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