Cryptocurrencies: “Bitcoin Defies the Headwinds”

Following a strong third quarter, the major cryptocurrencies are consolidating. Demand for crypto investment products has also slowed. Despite high bond yields and geopolitical risks, selling pressure remains limited.

October 15, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Cryptocurrencies have had a strong third quarter, but the upward momentum has slowed recently. Bitcoin rose by more than 40 percent in the third quarter and climbed to over $87,000 at the end of September. It currently stands at $81,300. Ethereum rose by a good 70 percent in the past quarter. After peaking at around $2,800, the second-largest cryptocurrency now trades at around $2,375. For Bitcoin, it was the strongest quarter since 2024; for Ethereum, it was the strongest since 2021.

Interest Rate Hikes and Regulation Don’t Slow It Down Permanently

“What doesn’t kill Bitcoin makes it stronger,” comments Jacob Lindberg of crypto ETP issuer Valour. He points to two stress tests in September: the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2023 and the failure of the Clarity Act in the U.S. Senate. The bill was intended to create a clearer regulatory framework for the crypto market. Both events initially led to price declines, from which Bitcoin quickly recovered, however. Progress in U.S. regulation is still being made. For example, in mid-September, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized trading in tokenized stocks under certain conditions.

André Dragosch of Bitwise also views this development positively. He notes that Bitcoin has recently shown remarkable resilience despite pressure in the bond markets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen significantly since the end of February, from 3.95 percent to its current level of 5.20 percent. This makes fixed-income investments more attractive while simultaneously tightening financing conditions.

The U.S. Dollar Plays a Key Role

For Dragosch, however, the performance of the U.S. dollar plays a particularly important role. Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar often move in opposite directions. Over a 90-day period, the correlation stands at minus 0.40, according to Bitwise. A weaker dollar and a further expansion of the global money supply could therefore provide additional support for Bitcoin. Conversely, new crises could lead to setbacks. “Shocks involving the euro, British government bonds, Iran, or the Federal Reserve could trigger a flight to the dollar and weigh on Bitcoin in the short term,” warns Dragosch.

Outflows Follow High Inflows

Capital flows into exchange-traded crypto products remain a key factor in price movements. According to WisdomTree, nearly $3 billion flowed into U.S. Bitcoin ETPs in September, while European Bitcoin products recorded inflows of about $100 million. Since the beginning of the year, however, Europe has led with just over $1.35 billion, ahead of the U.S. with just under $1 billion. Ethereum products also saw significant inflows of more than $750 million in the U.S. in September, while Europe saw slight outflows.

In October, the picture has clouded over again. Max Michielsen of 21Shares reports net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs totaling approximately $400 million since the beginning of the month. According to Bitwise, approximately $1.27 billion flowed out of crypto ETPs worldwide in the most recent reporting week, of which $656 million came from Bitcoin products.


“$100,000 by year-end” remains a possibility

Michielsen nevertheless interprets the recent price declines as a normal pullback within a market structure that has improved once again. The range between $81,000 and $82,000 has evolved from a resistance zone to a support zone. On the upside, the region around $86,500 to $87,000 is initially crucial. In his view, a monthly close above $88,000 would confirm the trend reversal. Furthermore, if bond yields stabilize and ETP inflows pick up again, he believes a rise to $100,000 by year-end is possible. If the price falls back below $81,000, however, there is a risk of another test of the September lows around $75,000.