Commodities: Oil Prices Plunge

The price of oil has fallen by more than a third from its highs. Precious metals, too, are far from their record highs. Both oil and gold ETCs are on the sell lists. 

June 18, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Commodity markets have seen sharp fluctuations this year: The price of oil is currently falling sharply. The reason: the framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which has now been signed, and the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow, Friday. The price of Brent crude, which was still at nearly $120 per barrel in early May, stood at just $77 on Thursday morning.

According to Leon Ferdinand Bost of Metzler, however, much lower prices are not expected for the time being. “Even if the agreement holds, it will likely take quite a while for traffic through the strait to return to normal,” he says. For instance, the Strait of Hormuz must be cleared of mines. Insurance costs will also remain high for the time being. Bost expects that only starting in 2027 could a narrowing gap between supply and demand push prices further down.

“Lively Trading in Both Directions”

Many market participants had apparently expected lower oil prices: Oil and gas ETCs have seen outflows in recent weeks, according to issuer WisdomTree. “However, sharp fluctuations led to brisk trading in both directions,” reports Mobeen Tahir.

In ETC trading on the Deutsche Börse, oil ETCs played a much more significant role than usual: There was a great deal of activity in the two price trackers, WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil (JE00B78CGV99) and WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil (GB00B15KXV33), as well as in the WisdomTree products with 3x leverage (IE00BMTM6B32, XS2819844387). Reporting on ETC trading, Sven Seipp of ICF Bank noted high trading volumes in the WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil 3x Daily Leveraged (IE00BMTM6B32). Lang & Schwarz is also seeing heavy trading in leveraged WTI and Brent ETCs, both long and short. 

Gold: “Significant Price Increase Possible”

There is also a lot of movement in the precious metals market. The price of gold has fallen sharply since its high of $5,570 in January; on Thursday morning, a troy ounce was trading at just under $4,300. The price of silver has nearly halved since its high of nearly $122. One reason: Before the framework agreement, expectations of higher key interest rates had taken hold—which is detrimental to interest-free gold.

That could now change: DWS forecasts—assuming at least a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a 0.5 percentage point lower key interest rate range for the U.S. by June 2027 and a rise in the price of gold. “Over the next twelve months, we believe a significant price increase is possible,” explains Vincenzo Vedda. In addition to the expected U.S. interest rate cuts, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and continued strong demand from central banks also support this outlook. The price target for June 2027: $5,400 per troy ounce.

Shift Away from Precious Metal ETCs

Precious metal ETCs have seen significant outflows in recent weeks, according to WisdomTree. Seipp also observes substantial outflows from the precious metals sector, such as from the Invesco Physical Gold EUR Hedged (XS2183935274) and the WisdomTree Physical Silver (JE00B1VS3333). The top-traded ETCs on Xetra were once again Xetra-Gold (DE000A0S9GB0) and gold price trackers from iShares (IE00B4ND3602) and Invesco (IE00B579F325). Xetra-Gold’s gold holdings have been moving sideways at a high level. They currently stand at 171 metric tons, down slightly from just under 173 metric tons at the end of 2025.