Commodities: Early Gold Buyers Are Returning
Following significant outflows from gold and silver ETCs, there are growing signs that precious metals are stabilizing. Interest in gold products is already on the rise. Oil, cocoa, and wheat are heavily influenced by geopolitical and weather-related risks.
July 23, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Precious metals are currently the clear focus of trading in commodity products. However, the picture has changed recently: Following significant selling of gold and silver ETCs in recent weeks, investors are growing more hopeful that the market has bottomed out. At the same time, traders are again reporting a buying surplus. “We’re seeing increased interest in precious metals, especially gold,” reports Ivo Orlemann of ICF Bank.
Gold Holds onto Psychologically Important Level
Following the sharp price increases at the start of the year, gold and silver have undergone “a healthy correction,” according to Mobeen Tahir of WisdomTree. He notes that much of the valuation premium has thus been pared back. Going forward, the expert believes macroeconomic fundamentals are likely to set the tone: “Lower inflation, falling interest rates, and a weaker U.S. dollar are providing support.” Barbara Lambrecht of Commerzbank, on the other hand, warns that renewed concerns about a key interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could slow a stronger recovery. Several Fed officials have recently made hawkish comments.
Robert Rethfeld of “Wellenreiter Invest” believes that precious metals “have formed a bottom for now.” He identifies the $4,000 mark as support for the gold price. “The overall downtrend remains intact, but the sharp downtrend is likely over for now, and a counter-movement, triggered by a double bottom, could begin.” In his opinion, a break above the 50-day moving average would pave the way to the 200-day moving average. The two moving averages currently stand at $4,123 and $4,237 per troy ounce, respectively. “The 200-day moving averages are powerful resistance levels,” warns the experienced market observer, cautioning against excessive euphoria.
Investors are currently betting on rising prices. Orlemann reports buying activity primarily in Invesco Physical Gold (IE00B579F325) and Invesco Physical Gold EUR Hedged (XS2183935274). The VanEck Gold Miners (IE00BQQP9F84) is also seeing predominantly buying activity. Peter Bösenberg of Société Générale also mentions a call warrant on gold (DE000SX6EM45) expiring in September with a strike price of $3,800. Another popular inline warrant (DE000FD53GM9) offers a return of just under 8 percent, provided the gold price remains between $3,500 and $5,800 at all times until September 18. If the price breaches either of these two levels, the warrant expires worthless.
Ivo Orlemann
Oil Prices Remain Tied to the War with Iran
The energy sector has seen modest capital inflows in recent weeks. The renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran has heightened concerns about supply bottlenecks and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. So far, there have been no major disruptions. Nevertheless, according to Tahir, crude oil prices currently reflect a significant geopolitical risk premium. The sharp price fluctuations present corresponding opportunities. According to Orlemann, the WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil (JE00B78CGV99) is therefore being traded in both directions. In the certificate segment, a Classic discount certificate on WTI crude oil (DE000FD0AAB7) is in demand. The product offers a potential return of 6 percent through May 2027, provided that WTI closes at a price of at least $55 per barrel. The current price is around $88.
Cocoa and Wheat See Sharp Swings
The price of wheat has already risen by more than 20 percent this month. Lower U.S. harvest and inventory estimates, as well as concerns about export disruptions in the Black Sea region, drove the price higher. According to Norman Liebke of Commerzbank, the French wheat harvest is also expected to be about 8 percent lower than last year. Heat waves are said to have weighed on yields. Further heat could worsen the outlook and support wheat prices. Nevertheless, profit-taking occurred in wheat products. Sales now outweigh buying in WisdomTree Wheat (JE00BN7KB664), as Orlemann explains.
The price of cocoa has recently shown even greater volatility. After a significant price decline at the start of the year, the trend has been generally upward again since early March. However, the past two weeks have seen setbacks. Tahir cites “speculation and fears that a strong El Niño could affect the next harvest in Ivory Coast” as the reason for the high volatility. Here, too, price movements are being actively tracked. The twice-leveraged WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged (JE00B2NFV803) was traded by ICF Bank clients in both directions.
By Thomas Koch, July 23, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Thomas Koch is a CEFA investment analyst, investment specialist for structured products, and certified certificate advisor. Since early 2006, he has been covering capital market events as a freelance journalist.
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