Certificates: “U.S. Individual Stocks Dominate”

Amid quiet holiday trading, investors in the certificate market are focusing heavily on select U.S. stocks. Tesla is generating exceptional trading volume ahead of the Cybercab presentation, while gold and Bitcoin are making a comeback.

September 3, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The vacation season left a clear mark on certificate trading in August. Markus Königer of ICF Bank reports a noticeable decline in trading volume over the past two weeks. Julius Weiss of HSBC confirms this picture: The second half of August, in particular, was below average in terms of the number of trades. However, the strong concentration on individual U.S. stocks remains striking. “We’ve been observing for some time now that many investors are focusing more heavily on the U.S. markets and selecting individual stocks as underlying assets,” explains Königer.

Tesla Drives Exceptional Trading Activity

According to Königer, the high trading volumes in Tesla products are particularly striking. Highly leveraged products are being traded on both sides of the market. Among the most actively traded securities are both the 10.0x Short Factor Warrant (DE000PM5WBQ3) and the 10.0x Long Factor Warrant (DE000PM7ATB9) on Tesla. After a sharp decline in July, the stock has recently regained significant ground. Today’s scheduled presentation of the Cybercab in Austin could spark new momentum. The two-seater robotaxi, which has no steering wheel or pedals, is specifically designed for autonomous driving.

Salesforce is also drawing more attention following its latest quarterly results. The software company raised its full-year forecast in late August and, at the same time, expanded its collaboration with the AI firm Anthropic. As a result, Königer reports increased trading in Salesforce products. Among the products in demand is a long discount warrant on Salesforce (DE000DU0U513), which expires in mid-December. If the stock is trading at least at $215 (current price: $257) by then, a price gain of around 19 percent is possible.

“Anything labeled ‘AI’ is selling well right now,” summarizes the ICF trader. Weiss also sees the focus clearly on U.S. stocks. In the area of traditional warrants, he cites Take-Two, among others, as a popular underlying asset. In early August, the video game developer reported exceptionally high pre-orders for “Grand Theft Auto VI.” A call warrant on Take-Two (DE000HT5CXG3) expiring in January 2027 with a strike price of $320 is seeing heavy trading.

Gold and Bitcoin Post Strong Gains

In addition to U.S. stocks, gold is once again generating high trading activity. Following a sharp decline in prices since early March, the precious metal has rebounded significantly in the first three weeks of August. Königer refers to a “gold comeback” amid renewed inflation concerns. Several turbo long warrants are ranked high in his trading statistics (DE000BY5Q3A3; DE000DU235X6; DE000PM46CD1).

Peter Bösenberg of Société Générale is also observing increased activity around alternative asset classes. Following the significant price increases of the past few weeks, leveraged products based on cryptocurrencies are in particularly high demand. As an example, he cites a turbo warrant on the Bitcoin futures contract (<DE000FG2BBD2>), whose price rose by nearly 200 percent in the second half of August.

High sideways returns with discounters

In the investment certificate segment, now that the earnings season is largely over, products with comparatively short remaining terms and attractive sideways yields are coming to the fore. Königer cites a discount certificate on Schneider Electric (DE000DU0NAP1) maturing in December 2026 with a maximum remaining yield of 4.6 percent p.a. and a 23 percent risk buffer. “With underlying assets like Schneider Electric, the sideways yields of these products are always very exciting.”

Weiss highlights a discount certificate on Microsoft (DE000HM06YJ3), which also matures in December. If the stock (currently around $497) is trading at least $450 at maturity, price gains of around 4 percent are still possible here. Bösenberg points to a discount certificate on Siemens Energy (DE000FE1YY72) maturing in June 2027. The energy technology group reported a record quarter in early August, driven by strong demand from its gas turbine and data center businesses. The certificate currently offers a potential return of about 12.5 percent by maturity.