Certificates: Focus on Oil and Tech Stocks

The AI rally is stalling, yet investors are still betting heavily on tech stocks—including Nvidia. At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in oil prices aren’t prompting many investors to take positions. Some are now choosing to hold back.

July 30, 2026. FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). The certificate trading market is currently focused heavily on AI and semiconductor stocks—and on oil. “Oil and more oil has been the watchword in recent weeks,” reports Simon Görich, who trades certificates for Baader Bank. “Hormus and Co. send their regards.” ICF trader Atakan Sahin sees things a bit differently: “We’re betting heavily on tech stocks,” he explains. “When it comes to oil, many have gotten burned and are now holding back.” According to Peter Bösenberg of the issuer Société Générale, trading volume has recently shifted slightly in favor of indices such as the DAX and Nasdaq. 

Tech Stocks: “Certificate Investors Are Confident”

The DAX leads the way—as always—in the stock index certificate business. “Trading volumes are high. Sometimes investors are betting on a rising DAX, other times on a falling one,” notes Sahin. At Société Générale, there is also a lot of activity in DAX-linked products, especially leveraged products.

At ICF Bank, however, U.S. tech and AI stocks are particularly noteworthy. The AI boom has taken a hit. The South Korean KOSPI 200 (KRD020020016), considered the AI index, has now lost about 40 percent of its value since its record high, while the U.S. tech index, the Nasdaq 100, has lost 11 percent. Sahin speaks of ongoing nervousness and “healthy skepticism.” “However, many companies are still delivering the numbers that investors demand.”

Popular Products on Meta or Nvidia – and Robinhood

A call warrant on Meta, Facebook’s parent company (DE000HM5ZGW3), with a strike price of $670 is being bought heavily. “Many have been put off by the high AI investments, but warrant investors remain confident,” notes Sahin. The same applies to Nvidia: Despite recent price declines, there is significant betting on Nvidia, for example through call warrants with a strike price of $300 (DE000HT0Q833). Also very popular at ICF is a call warrant on the U.S. online broker Robinhood Markets (DE000HM303K5) with a strike price of $140. “We’re seeing almost nothing but buys there.” Among Société Générale’s clientele, a call warrant on the U.S. airline American Airlines (DE000FE61U01) is proving popular.

In the area of investment products, Bösenberg reports high trading volumes in a bonus-cap certificate on the travel group TUI (DE000FE4EQ32). This certificate allows investors to participate in rising prices. However, it also offers additional protection if the underlying asset does not touch or fall below the barrier of 4.20 euros between April 23, 2026, and September 16, 2027.

Oil Price Swings: Some Have Had Enough

The oil price has been extremely volatile in July, with Brent crude trading between $71 and $100 per barrel—depending on the news. The current price is just under $90. While Baader Bank is betting heavily on oil and Bösenberg of Société Générale is seeing a slight increase in trading volume in Brent-linked certificates, ICF’s clientele has become more cautious. “Due to the sharp swings, we’re now seeing less business,” reports Sahin.

Things have quieted down in the cryptocurrency certificate market. “Those who are convinced of Bitcoin’s potential are holding onto the cryptocurrency, but there are no follow-on purchases,” Sahin reports. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $62,000 for several months. Compared to its all-time high in October 2025, that represents a 50% drop in price.