Bonds: Safe-haven buying pushes down yields

Falling yields continue to dominate the bond markets. One reason for this is the increasing uncertainty on the markets. From a technical perspective, important benchmarks are coming into focus. It is striking that bonds denominated in Swiss francs are becoming increasingly popular.

February 27, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Yields on the bond markets continue to decline. Ten-year German government bonds yielded 2.70 percent on Friday morning, down from 2.74 percent the previous week. At the beginning of February, the yield was still 2.90 percent. The yield on US Treasuries is currently 4.00 percent, down from 4.07 percent a week ago. At the beginning of February, ten-year US bonds were still yielding 4.30 percent. This development was supported, among other things, by weaker economic data and increased “safe haven purchases” in the wake of political uncertainty. There was very high turnover in short-term Bubills (Federal Treasury notes), as Raffaele Antacido of ICF Bank notes. “Such phenomena usually occur in periods of market uncertainty.”

Emerging markets as potential beneficiaries of the latest tariff developments

The focus was once again on US tariff policy. After the Supreme Court ruled last Friday that the government's “reciprocal tariffs” were unlawful, Donald Trump promptly responded with a new flat-rate import tariff of up to 15 percent on foreign goods. However, the bond markets reacted relatively calmly. “High-yield spreads widened only moderately, despite potential refund volumes of up to USD 170 billion,” reports Tim Oechsner of Steubing AG. In his view, investors had already anticipated and priced in a circumvention strategy by the US administration. In this context, he finds it interesting to look at the emerging markets: “Emerging markets are benefiting selectively, as the new measures could actually reduce the average tariff burden.”

Jonas Feldhusen from Hamburg Commercial Bank cites another reason for the recent developments on the bond markets: "On Monday, an analysis by the research firm Citrini intensified the downward pressure on yields. The thought experiment ‘The Global Intelligence Crisis’ not only describes the explosive power of AI for the labor market, but also warns of so-called ‘ghost GDP’. This refers to a productivity boom that causes GDP to rise sharply, but which does not reach households because they are in competition with AI agents, thus generating negative income effects for households."

Yields have reached important chart marks

Ilona Korsch from Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe is eagerly watching the technical side of the markets. According to her analysis, yields are currently trading at important chart marks. For 10-year Bund yields, the level around 2.70 percent is not easy to break through as technical resistance. “However, if this happens on a sustained basis, a move towards 2.60 percent is possible.” Ralf Umlauf takes a similar view of the Euro Bund Future as a price barometer for German bonds. “Sustained prices above the 129.55/66 zone have opened up potential for a contract high of 130.71,” explains the strategist. Support remains unchanged at 129.20, at the last low of 129.05, and at the 21- and 100-day lines at 128.90 and 128.76, respectively.

CHF bonds move into focus for companies

According to Antacido, there were “no bonds that stood out with high volumes or high flow” in the corporate bond segment this week. The primary market also saw “calmer conditions overall” with new issues. In addition to individual companies such as AstraZeneca (US04636NAQ60, US04636NAR44 and US04636NAS27) – whose bonds will be tradable starting next Monday – issuers from emerging markets such as Indonesia, Mongolia, Kenya, and Congo in particular raised new money this week.

According to the trader, it is striking that companies are increasingly borrowing in Swiss francs (CHF) instead of US dollars. This is primarily due to the attractive interest rate differential and the stability of the currency. The Swiss National Bank's significantly more defensive interest rate policy and the currency's status as a safe haven are driving high demand for CHF securities, which is further depressing interest rates for issuers. As an example, Antacido cites a newly issued bond from Air Liquide (traded on the stock exchange from March 5) in CHF with a term of 12 years and a coupon of 1.3125 percent (CH1523561988).

“Evergreen” stocks continue to be bought

Tim Oechsner from Steubing AG reports typically good sales in “evergreen” stocks. These include bonds from larger German companies with a denomination of €1,000. This week's shopping list mainly included securities from Porsche Automobil Holding (XS2615940215), Deutsche Post (XS2784415718), Deutsche Telekom (XS2985250898), Hochtief (DE000A2YN2U2), and Bayer (XS2630111719).