Bonds: “All eyes on Davos”

First risk-off mode, then risk-on again – the week was full of excitement. Now calm has returned, and attention is back on bond-related topics such as key interest rates. However, some are turning away from the US.

January 23, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Events at the World Economic Forum are also influencing the bond markets. “The week was dominated by Davos,” reports Arthur Brunner, who trades bonds for ICF Bank. “The threat of higher US tariffs has pushed other issues into the background in recent days,” notes Commerzbank analyst Marco Wagner. Stocks lost significant ground, and “safe havens” were sought. However, following the agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the withdrawal of the tariff threat, the situation looks different again. “The bottom line is that yields haven't changed that much,” Brunner notes.  

“Danish fund no longer considers the US creditworthy”

However, he has been observing a shift away from US government bonds and toward gold for some time. In this context, the announcement by the Danish pension fund AkademikerPension that it would sell all US government bonds attracted a lot of attention this week. “The fund no longer considers the US creditworthy,” Brunner notes. Ten-year German government bonds yielded 2.90 percent on Friday afternoon, up from 2.83 percent the previous week. Ten-year US Treasuries currently yield 4.24 percent, up from 4.17 percent a week ago.

New Fed chair: Trump protégé or independent?

Following the turmoil in Davos, Commerzbank believes that the focus will now shift back to the central banks. No further action is expected at the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next Wednesday. “The Fed is likely to hold steady and not lower its key interest rates any further for the time being,” explains analyst Bernd Weidensteiner. The next few months are likely to be dominated less by monetary policy considerations in the narrow sense and more by the Fed's struggle for independence. “However, there are growing indications that Kevin Warsh, rather than Kevin Hassett, will become the next chairman, who is considered more neutral due to his experience and reputation,” the bank notes.

Popular zloty bonds

Today, investors are buying a European Union bond maturing in 2031 (EU000A3L1DJ0), which currently yields 2.73 percent, as reported by Gregor Daniel of Walter Ludwig Wertpapierhandelsbank. He also sees purchases, albeit at a lower level, in bonds denominated in Polish zloty. Examples include a Polish government bond maturing in 2034 (PL0000116851) and bonds from the European Investment Bank (EIB) maturing in 2029 denominated in Polish currency (EU000A3L6Q26). These currently offer yields of 4.92 and 3.76 percent. “It is interesting to note that the Polish National Bank recently increased its gold reserves to around 550 tons, making the country's gold reserves larger than those of the ECB,” Daniel notes.

Mercedes and Eon sought after, but also Schalke

In the corporate bond sector, the Mercedes-Benz bond maturing in 2031 is being “constantly bought” at just under 3 percent (DE000A3LH6U5), as Daniel also reports. He reports purchases and sales for the Eon bond maturing in 2044, currently at 4.17 percent (XS2791960664). Meanwhile, DEAG Deutsche Entertainment (NO0013639112) securities declined. “After the price corrected slightly from the previous week, there was buying interest in the 102 percent range,” he adds.

According to Brunner, the Gelsenkirchen-Schalke soccer club bond, which is now trading at 105 percent (DE000A460AT6), continues to be popular. ABO Energy (DE000A3829F5), on the other hand, continued to decline. The bond is now trading at only 16 percent, as Brunner explains. After a loss forecast of 95 million euros for 2025 in November, the price had already fallen from 100 to 50 percent. Now the loss is expected to be as high as 170 million euros.

News from BMW

There were an extremely large number of new issues this week – as is always the case at the beginning of the year. BMW's new bonds with a denomination of €1,000 are also aimed at small investors, as Marcus Mielert from Oddo BHF reports: one offers 2.625 percent until 2029 (XS3280518856), another 3.25 percent until 2032 (XS3280519078), and a third 3.75 percent until 2036 (XS3280519318). There is also a floater.