Weekly outlook: “Rosy AI glasses taken off”
On Rose Monday, concerns about an AI bubble and speculation about US interest rate cuts continue to keep the markets on tenterhooks. At the start of the week, there is a lack of momentum from the US and China, as it is a public holiday there.
February 16, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The nervousness continues. Claudia Windt from Helaba describes the previous week as a “wild week” and a rollercoaster ride. “Investors saw it all: a technology buying spree and sell-off, AI concerns, and uncertainty about the Fed's future monetary policy against the backdrop of a solid US labor market report,” she explains. “The stock market is finding it increasingly difficult,” comments Alexander Krämer from Commerzbank. Although the S&P 500, DAX, and others are still within striking distance of their all-time highs, “these have recently proved to be an almost insurmountable hurdle.”
The DAX (DE0008469008) closed at 24,902 points on Friday, down from a record high of 25,508 points in mid-January. On Monday morning, the index stood at 24,998 points. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) remains just below its peak. The US markets closed more or less unchanged on Friday. However, the Nasdaq 100 (US6311011026) is now around 5 percent below its record high. The price of gold (XC0009655157) has stabilized at just under $5,000, while Bitcoin remains weak at $68,400.
AI nervousness instead of euphoria
According to Markus Leistner of DZ Bank, AI euphoria has increasingly given way to profound nervousness. “This phenomenon, known as ‘AI scare trade,’ has reached a new, gloomy dimension,” he explains. It is no longer just a question of whether AI stocks are overvalued, but of the fundamental disruptive forces that this technology could exert on the entire economy. “The result is a market environment in which there seems to be hardly any safe haven left – a feeling of ‘no place to hide’,” Leistner summarizes.
Old economy instead of tech stocks
Robert Halver from Baader Bank points out that even significantly lower tech valuations are not currently leading to additional purchases. “Investors have taken off their rose-colored AI glasses and are now asking tough questions about profitability in view of the billions being invested.” The trigger for the “AI scare trade” is companies such as Anthropic, which with their AI agents could obviously automate work processes in the areas of law, sales, medicine, marketing, and data analysis in general at low cost.
Halver sees a sector rotation on the US stock market: value stocks from the “old economy” are celebrating a comeback as reliable cash suppliers to the real economy.
Robert Halver
“Support line must hold”
The chart analysis is not reassuring, as Christoph Geyer explains: "Investors should not feel too secure at the moment. Although the breakout from the old resistance zone was successful, the market has not yet managed to hold above the new support zone,“ he emphasizes. At least the end of the week was positive. The indicators are in neutral territory and therefore do not provide any support for further assessment. ”For the new week, the focus should be on maintaining the support zone. Not much more should be expected."
US economic data dominates the calendar this week. The reporting season in the US is coming to an end, with only a few companies still to publish their results, such as Palo Alto, Ebay, and Walmart. In Europe, Carrefour, Rio Tinto, Nestlé, Renault, and Danone are among those reporting.
Important economic and business data
Monday, February 16
USA: President's Day. US markets remain closed.
China: New Year week. The week-long break on the Chinese stock markets for Chinese New Year begins.
Tuesday, February 17
11:00 a.m. Germany: ZEW Economic Expectations for February. According to DekaBank, the Sentix survey showed that, given the poor economic situation, an improvement in this situation is expected. The ZEW economic situation and expectations for Germany would also improve noticeably.
Wednesday, February 18
2:30 p.m. USA: Durable Goods Orders for December. According to Helaba, the outlook is negative, with weaker Boeing orders suggesting a decline in orders.
3:15 p.m. USA: Industrial production for January. According to Helaba, industrial production is set for a positive start to the year.
8:00 p.m. USA: Minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on January 27/28.
Friday, February 20
10:00 a.m. Eurozone: February Purchasing Managers' Index. Commerzbank believes that the Purchasing Managers' Index will show improved sentiment in the manufacturing sector. It therefore expects the composite index to rise to 51.5 points and level off at a moderate level.
2:30 p.m. US: Fourth quarter GDP. According to Commerzbank, the data, which was delayed due to the shutdown, is likely to show similarly strong growth as in the second quarter (3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, annualized) and the third quarter (4.4 percent). The bank expects 3.7 percent, driven by private consumption, non-construction investment, and an improvement in the trade balance.
Saturday, February 21
Börsentag Frankfurt at Kap Europa.
- More on this: live.deutsche-boerse.com
By Anna-Maria Borse, February 16, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and economics editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.
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